Last Seasons Power Rankings

The NFL has tried to bring as much parity to the game as possible.  As a result we now see teams that barely make the playoffs go on to win the Super Bowl.  An argument can be made that the last 3 Super Bowl winners were all a play away from not making the playoffs at all.  That is a far cry from the days of the power house teams of the 70's 80's and 90's.  In those decades there was not much doubt as to the best team each season, with a few exceptions.

In 2010 the Packers would not have made the playoffs had it not been for a dramatic punt return for TD by Desean Jackson with time running out in the Philadelphia/NY Giants game.  Without that TD the Giants make the playoffs and the Packers are out.  In 2011 I can name at least 5 plays or bad calls that went the Giants way during the regular season.  Without those plays the Giants do not make the playoffs.  Same holds true of Baltimore last season.

My point here is not that these teams did not deserve to win but that the difference between the teams who barely miss the playoffs and those winning Super Bowls is not very great.  So how can we use this as a bettor to find value?

Firstly I like to look at my power rankings from last season to get a picture of what "should" have happened as opposed to what did happen.

Rank	Teams	Power Rating
1	Denver	30.26
2	New England	29.07
3	Seattle	28.06
4	San Francisco	27.90
5	Green Bay	25.15
6	Chicago	24.50
7	Houston	24.44
8	Atlanta	24.37
9	NY Giants	23.68
10	Cincinnati	23.29
11	Baltimore	23.25
12	Pittsburgh	22.96
13	Washington	22.89
14	Carolina	22.73
15	Minnesota	22.14
16	Dallas	21.97
17	Detroit	21.95
18	New Orleans	21.38
19	Tampa Bay	20.51
20	St. Louis	20.48
21	San Diego	19.77
22	Miami	18.59
23	Indianapolis	18.21
24	Cleveland	17.91
25	NY Jets	17.60
26	Arizona	17.22
27	Philadelphia	17.05
28	Buffalo	16.94
29	Oakland	15.98
30	Tennessee	14.82
31	Kansas City	13.74
32	Jacksonville	12.79

Playoff teams

This is the breakdown of the power rankings going into the playoffs last season.  We can see right away some rankings that may surprise you.  The Colts 23rd, Bears 6th, Baltimore 11th.  These may all be a bit surprising.  But this is the nature of the NFL.  You are not going to have a team in the NBA miss the playoffs who has a chance to win the title.  Probably the same in the NHL and to a degree in MLB.  The NFL will always have teams make the playoffs that would be underdogs on a neutral field to a team not in the playoffs.  Handicapping teams to win the Super Bowl and win totals then presents special challenges in the NFL.  But it also allows for some good value because of it.

This week I will be going over the undervalued and overvalued teams in the league this season based on last year and changes made to their teams this season.  In the meantime have a look at the rankings above and try and figure out for yourself who you think were a bit lucky or unlucky and who can surprise this season.


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