Statstional Week 16 NFL Power Rankings

A bit of a shakeup in the top 5 this week as Denver moves back on top with Seattle at its highest spot this season, number 2.  Green Bay sneaks back into the top 5 with a lopsided win over Tennessee.  Cincinnati may be playing some of the best football in the league right now as they charge up into the 9 spot.

The AFC playoff teams have been set.  It is all about seeding this week.  We will have a very similar playoff look in the AFC as we did last season.  The exception is Pittsburgh is out and the Colts are in.  As we stated before the Colts are the by product of the easiest schedule in the league.  They will be a heavy underdog come playoff time.  I wouldn't expect them to advance very far but just making the playoffs is a huge success after such a bad season last year.  There is still a chance they play Denver and Payton Manning which would be quite the story.

In the NFC there are 2 spots up for grabs.  The easiest scenario ist he winner of the Dallas/Washington game will win the NFC East and host a playoff game.  Washington can back in with a loss if Chicago and Minnesota also lose.  The defending champs are in the worst situation.  The Giants are still our top ranked team in the NFC East but they will need to win and have Dallas, Minnesota and Chicago all lose. 

Week 17 is always tricky to handicap as some teams will not be playing all of their starters because they have a playoff spot and seed locked in.  This year just Atlanta has clinched home field throughout so perhaps we will most have teams playing 100% the whole way.

Game of the Week
Dallas @ Washington -3
It has been a while since these two bitter rivals have played in a game with everything on the line.  The winner in this one wins the NFC East and gets home field in the first round.  In their last matchup Washington dominated Dallas on Thanksgiving.  Dallas is 4th in passing and Washington is 29th in stopping the pass.  RGIII is the key to the running game for Washington and he seems to be a bit slower than usual with a thigh injury.  Washington is 2nd in rushing and Dallas is 18th in stopping the run.  These teams are very close.  Washington is getting the 3 point edge in Vegas because of home field.  But Washington has been less than impressive the last few seasons at home.  This one promises to be tight and down to the wire. 

Biggest Mismatch
Arizona @ SF -16.5
The line here is a bit inflated but that is because SF needs to win this game to win the NFC West.  Normally this would be a 13 point spread tops.  So if you are taking SF you are paying the premium that they have a ton of motivation.  But as we have seen over and over teams who have played for nothing all year love to get up for a divisional game that can hurt its rival.  SF is the top defense in the league and Arizona is the 30th offense.  SF will try and run it.  They rank 5th in offensive rushing while Arizona ranks 21 in stopping the run.  That could mean a low scoring game.  Hard to imagine SF losing this one with this much on the line.

Rank	Teams	Power Rating
1	Denver	29.58
2	Seattle	28.51
3	New England	28.42
4	San Francisco	28.08
5	Green Bay	25.40
6	Atlanta	25.08
7	Houston	24.67
8	Chicago	24.42
9	Cincinnati	23.26
10	Baltimore	23.24
11	Pittsburgh	23.17
12	NY Giants	23.03
13	Washington	22.67
14	Carolina	22.40
15	Dallas	22.26
16	Detroit	22.20
17	Minnesota	21.83
18	New Orleans	21.81
19	St. Louis	20.18
20	San Diego	20.13
21	Tampa Bay	19.76
22	Miami	18.90
23	NY Jets	18.08
24	Philadelphia	17.89
25	Indianapolis	17.65
26	Cleveland	17.58
27	Arizona	17.37
28	Buffalo	16.51
29	Oakland	15.66
30	Tennessee	14.80
31	Kansas City	14.28
32	Jacksonville	12.79

Rank	Teams	Strength Of Schedule
1	Arizona	22.73
2	NY Giants	22.50
3	St. Louis	22.50
4	Dallas	22.28
5	San Francisco	22.17
6	Seattle	22.14
7	New Orleans	22.09
8	Philadelphia	22.04
9	Carolina	21.93
10	Baltimore	21.79
11	Minnesota	21.65
12	Green Bay	21.60
13	NY Jets	21.54
14	Washington	21.53
15	Chicago	21.46
16	Detroit	21.45
17	Tampa Bay	21.26
18	Tennessee	21.16
19	Jacksonville	21.16
20	Cleveland	20.99
21	Denver	20.96
22	Buffalo	20.89
23	Atlanta	20.85
24	Oakland	20.76
25	San Diego	20.74
26	Pittsburgh	20.63
27	Kansas City	20.63
28	New England	20.49
29	Miami	20.32
30	Cincinnati	20.11
31	Houston	20.03
32	Indianapolis	19.22

NFC East	21.46	W	L
NY Giants	23.03	8	7
Washington	22.67	9	6
Dallas	22.26	8	7
Philadelphia	17.89	4	11
NFC North	23.46	W	L
Green Bay	25.40	11	4
Chicago	24.42	9	6
Detroit	22.20	4	11
Minnesota	21.83	9	6
NFC South	22.26	W	L
Atlanta	25.08	13	2
Carolina	22.40	6	9
New Orleans	21.81	7	8
Tampa Bay	19.76	6	9
NFC West	23.53	W	L
Seattle	28.51	10	5
San Francisco	28.08	10	4
St. Louis	20.18	7	7
Arizona	17.37	5	10
AFC East	20.48	W	L
New England	28.42	11	4
Miami	18.90	7	8
NY Jets	18.08	6	9
Buffalo	16.51	5	10
AFC North	21.81	W	L
Cincinnati	23.26	9	6
Baltimore	23.24	10	5
Pittsburgh	23.17	7	8
Cleveland	17.58	5	10
AFC South	17.48	W	L
Houston	24.67	12	3
Indianapolis	17.65	10	5
Tennessee	14.80	5	10
Jacksonville	12.79	2	13
AFC West	19.91	W	L
Denver	29.58	12	3
San Diego	20.13	6	9
Oakland	15.66	4	11
Kansas City	14.28	2	13

Statsational Week 15 Power Rankings

The top two teams come from the AFC but once again all of the NFC divisions are rated higher than the AFC divisions.  Despite their home loss, the Patriots remain the number 1 team in the Rankings this week.  Denver actually jumps the triumphant Niners with their big win at Baltimore.  The Niners do increase their power number and are the top team in the NFC.  Seattle looked great in Buffalo and solidifies itself at number 4.  After that things get tight from 5-9.


The NFC East has tightened up with 3 teams tied at the top at 8-6.  The rankings still have the Giants as the best of the 3 but if the playoffs started today it would be Washington who wins that division.  The final game of the year in Washington against the Cowboys could be for the division and a playoff spot.

Game of the Week
San Francisco @ Seattle +1

The top two NFC teams in the rankings square off in an NFC West division battle.  The Seahawks still have an outside chance of winning the division but that would mean a win this week.  In their last meeting it was a defensive battle but now both offenses have been getting hotter with their young quarterbacks at the helm.  Seattle has put up 50 points in back to back games while SF scored 41 at Foxboro last week.  Neither will get to those totals this week as the Seahawks are 2nd in defense while the 49ers are tops.  The total is 39 and our models have this game even lower than that.  San Francisco ranks 8th in offense and Seattle 9th.  SF is 4th in rushing while Seattle 3rd, SF is 26th in passing and Seattle is 27th.  These teams are very tight.  Look for this to go right down to the wire.

Biggest Mismatch of the Week
New England @ Jacksonville +14.5

The only way this could get worse is if it were in New England.  The Patriots rank number 1 while Jacksonville is dead last.  The line actually seems a bit low especially with the Patriots coming off a loss at home but covering 14.5 on the road is tough no matter who the opponent.  The model looks for 471 total yards from the Pats.  The Jags rank 29th in defense which is a scary proposition against the top rated offense.  Tough to see this game being very close.

Worst Matchup
Indianapolis @ Kansas City +6.5

The Colts remain a top team in the standings but near the bottom on our rankings.  They are the most overrated team in the league.  The Chiefs of course are what they are and that is a bottom of the league team.  The Colts thus far have played the easiest schedule in the league and this weeks matchup will not do anything to change that.  The Colts are best at passing it ranked 8th in the league but the Chiefs can stop the pass ranked 4th in defensive passing.  This game may not be as big a blowout as expected.

Rank	Teams	Power Rating
1	New England	29.54
2	Denver	29.17
3	San Francisco	28.87
4	Seattle	27.48
5	Houston	25.87
6	Atlanta	25.06
7	NY Giants	24.49
8	Chicago	24.06
9	Green Bay	24.01
10	Pittsburgh	23.31
11	Cincinnati	23.03
12	Washington	23.00
13	Dallas	22.86
14	Carolina	22.34
15	Baltimore	22.19
16	Detroit	21.87
17	New Orleans	21.37
18	Minnesota	20.43
19	Tampa Bay	19.92
20	St. Louis	19.88
21	San Diego	19.73
22	Miami	19.17
23	NY Jets	18.71
24	Indianapolis	18.14
25	Philadelphia	17.84
26	Cleveland	17.83
27	Arizona	17.41
28	Buffalo	16.78
29	Tennessee	16.33
30	Oakland	15.40
31	Kansas City	13.64
32	Jacksonville	11.86

Rank	Teams	Strength Of Schedule
1	St. Louis	22.48
2	Carolina	22.37
3	Arizona	22.47
4	Dallas	22.50
5	NY Giants	22.23
6	Washington	21.89
7	NY Jets	21.56
8	New Orleans	21.89
9	Green Bay	22.07
10	Seattle	21.54
11	Philadelphia	21.88
12	Minnesota	21.46
13	Tennessee	21.30
14	Chicago	21.56
15	Detroit	21.02
16	Baltimore	21.84
17	Kansas City	20.76
18	Oakland	20.75
19	San Francisco	21.76
20	Miami	20.47
21	Tampa Bay	20.94
22	Denver	21.09
23	Jacksonville	20.60
24	San Diego	20.75
25	Buffalo	21.03
26	Cleveland	20.73
27	Pittsburgh	20.77
28	New England	21.10
29	Cincinnati	20.23
30	Houston	20.20
31	Atlanta	20.49
32	Indianapolis	19.88

NFC East	22.05	W	L
NY Giants	24.49	8	6
Washington	23.00	8	6
Dallas	22.86	8	6
Philadelphia	17.84	4	10
NFC North	22.59	W	L
Chicago	24.06	8	6
Green Bay	24.01	10	4
Detroit	21.87	4	10
Minnesota	20.43	8	6
NFC South	22.17	W	L
Atlanta	25.06	12	2
Carolina	22.34	5	9
New Orleans	21.37	6	8
Tampa Bay	19.92	6	8
NFC West	23.41	W	L
San Francisco	28.87	10	3
Seattle	27.48	9	5
St. Louis	19.88	6	7
Arizona	17.41	5	9
AFC East	21.05	W	L
New England	29.54	10	4
Miami	19.17	6	8
NY Jets	18.71	6	8
Buffalo	16.78	5	9
AFC North	21.59	W	L
Pittsburgh	23.31	7	7
Cincinnati	23.03	8	6
Baltimore	22.19	9	5
Cleveland	17.83	5	9
AFC South	18.05	W	L
Houston	25.87	12	2
Indianapolis	18.14	9	5
Tennessee	16.33	5	9
Jacksonville	11.86	2	12
AFC West	19.48	W	L
Denver	29.17	11	3
San Diego	19.73	5	9
Oakland	15.40	4	10
Kansas City	13.64	2	12

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Statsational Week 14 NFL Power Rankings

For the first time since week 8 the Denver Broncos are not in the top spot.  New England's dominating performance over the Houston Texans has vaulted them to number 1.  The win hurts Denver in both the rankings and, more importantly, in the AFC standings.  Denver has a loss to both New England and Houston.  A Pats loss last night would have given the Broncos a 1 game lead over New England for the 2 seed.  Now they are in the 3rd spot and will need New England to stumble in one of their last 3.  The Pats have another huge game this week with San Francisco at home.  After that they have two winnable games with Jacksonville and Miami.  The Broncos are at Baltimore this week then home for Cleveland and Kansas City.  Houston has a one game lead over the Pats but need to finish ahead of them due to the head to head loss.  They have 2 with Indianapolis and one with Minnesota left.

Seattle made a move into the top 5 this week after destroying the Arizona Cardinals 58-0.  Seattle is 1.5 games behind San Francisco but they are at Buffalo, then home for San Francisco and St. Louis.  San Francisco goes to New England and has Arizona at home in their other two games.  If San Francisco loses to the Patriots the matchup in week 16 could be for the NFC West.  Who would have seen that coming.

Game of the Week
San Francisco @ New England -3.5

Possibly a preview to the Super Bowl, the top two teams in my rankings will square off in Foxboro for the Sunday night game this week.  San Francisco has the number 1 ranked defense, 2nd against the run and 2nd against the pass.  They are giving up just under 14 points per game and almost 8 fewer points per game then their opponents average.  On offense the Niners rank 10th overall thanks to the 3rd ranked rushing attack.  The Patriots are polar opposite.  They rank 1 in offense, 7th in rushing, 2nd in passing.  Defensively they rank just 22nd, 8th against the run and 31st against the pass.  New England will turn you over and they do not give it up.  They are a league leading the league at +24 in give/take.  This one figures to be a great game of strength against strength.

Worst Game of the Week
Kansas City @ Oakland -3

Kansas City comes in ranked 30 and Oakland ranked 31.  It doesn't get much worse than that.  It has been a long disappointing year for both teams.  Oakland is the worst defense in the league and the 28th rushing team.  Kansas City is the 24th defense in the league and the 30th offense.  Neither team can do much of anything right.  Oaklands strength is throwing it ranked 7th in passing.  Kansas City stops the pass well ranked 5th.  Kansas City's strength is running it, ranked 4th while Oakland is 30th in stopping the rush.  That could be the difference.

Biggest Mismatch
Indianapolis @ Houston -9.5

A battle of, what looks to be, two playoff teams yet they fall in the biggest mismatch category this week.  Houston is coming of a blowout loss but we know how good this team can be.  Ranked 5th overall they rank 6th in defense and 7th in offense.  Indianapolis ranks 27th in defense and 16th in offense.  The Colts throw it well ranked 8th and Houston is just 18th in stopping the pass.  Houston is 8th in rushing it while the Colts are just 21st in stopping the rush.

Rank	Teams	Power Rating
1	New England	29.59
2	San Francisco	28.67
3	Denver	28.59
4	Seattle	26.35
5	Houston	25.78
6	NY Giants	25.72
7	Chicago	24.84
8	Pittsburgh	23.70
9	Green Bay	23.20
10	Atlanta	23.17
11	Dallas	22.99
12	Detroit	22.92
13	Baltimore	22.78
14	Cincinnati	22.70
15	Washington	22.32
16	Tampa Bay	21.11
17	San Diego	21.05
18	Carolina	21.00
19	Minnesota	20.36
20	St. Louis	20.12
21	New Orleans	19.79
22	NY Jets	19.02
23	Cleveland	18.99
24	Miami	18.61
25	Indianapolis	18.29
26	Philadelphia	18.29
27	Buffalo	17.77
28	Tennessee	16.43
29	Arizona	16.20
30	Kansas City	14.63
31	Oakland	14.44
32	Jacksonville	12.16

Rank	Teams	Strength Of Schedule
1	St. Louis	22.65
2	Carolina	22.47
3	Arizona	22.43
4	Dallas	22.41
5	NY Giants	22.16
6	Washington	22.11
7	NY Jets	21.96
8	New Orleans	21.95
9	Green Bay	21.86
10	Seattle	21.83
11	Philadelphia	21.82
12	Minnesota	21.56
13	Tennessee	21.47
14	Chicago	21.43
15	Detroit	21.39
16	Baltimore	21.32
17	Kansas City	21.24
18	Oakland	21.22
19	San Francisco	21.16
20	Miami	21.11
21	Tampa Bay	21.03
22	Denver	20.96
23	Jacksonville	20.76
24	San Diego	20.73
25	Buffalo	20.62
26	Cleveland	20.60
27	Pittsburgh	20.59
28	New England	20.52
29	Cincinnati	20.38
30	Houston	20.35
31	Atlanta	20.09
32	Indianapolis	19.42

NFC East	22.33	W	L
NY Giants	25.72	8	5
Dallas	22.99	7	6
Washington	22.32	7	6
Philadelphia	18.29	4	9
NFC North	22.83	W	L
Chicago	24.84	8	5
Green Bay	23.20	9	4
Detroit	22.92	4	9
Minnesota	20.36	7	6
NFC South	21.27	W	L
Atlanta	23.17	11	2
Tampa Bay	21.11	6	7
Carolina	21.00	4	9
New Orleans	19.79	5	8
NFC West	22.84	W	L
San Francisco	28.67	9	3
Seattle	26.35	8	5
St. Louis	20.12	6	6
Arizona	16.20	4	9
AFC East	21.25	W	L
New England	29.59	10	3
NY Jets	19.02	6	7
Miami	18.61	5	8
Buffalo	17.77	5	8
AFC North	22.04	W	L
Pittsburgh	23.70	7	6
Baltimore	22.78	9	4
Cincinnati	22.70	7	6
Cleveland	18.99	5	8
AFC South	18.17	W	L
Houston	25.78	11	2
Indianapolis	18.29	9	4
Tennessee	16.43	4	9
Jacksonville	12.16	2	11
AFC West	19.68	W	L
Denver	28.59	10	3
San Diego	21.05	5	8
Kansas City	14.63	2	11
Oakland	14.44	3	10

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