Well that was the kind of week those who have been with me since last
season have grown accustomed to. 9-2 is exactly what we needed to give
us a bit of a cushion. I mentioned in last weeks emails we needed the
suckers to get hammered this week and they did. Whenever you see that
many home dogs on the board you know the public is going to come out
betting fast and furious at those seemingly deflated lines. If you were
in an office pool you probably saw some pretty low win totals last
week.
Because we had such a big week your bankroll should now be larger.
My suggestion would be to use your original bankroll all season long and
the winnings are put aside. In other words bet the same amount you did
in week 1 per game this week. Do not get the urge to push the bet
sizes. You will find yourself having a big week, like last week, and
follow it up with a not so good week and be in worse shape than you were
before the big week. Then you will have to bring the bet amount down
and we will have another huge week. The worst week you have will be the
highest you bet. It is hard to pick winners over the course of the
season like we did last year and so far this year. To screw it up with
poor money management is devastating.
Having a look at this weeks card we are in a similar situation as we
were last week. We have the dog in 10 of the 13 games we are taking. I
have gone through the games a million times making sure there are no
mistakes. The numbers are coming out with another dog heavy week. What
is interesting is historically favorite leaning trends are leaning
toward the dogs overwhelmingly so far this season. Part of that is the
inordinate amount of home underdogs we have seen so far. 39.5% of all
games have seen the home team getting points. Over the course of the
season, if that continued, we would have 101 games with a home dog. The
largest number of home dogs we have seen in the last 20 seasons was 88
in 2007. So far this year the oddsmakers have not gotten a handle on
who are the better teams. The underdogs are winning at a 60% clip.
Hopefully that trend continues this week.
Week 4 Picks
1. Miami +6.5....................76%
2. Oakland +6.5..............75%
3. New Orleans +7.5........73%
4. Buffalo +4.5.................66%
5. Carolina +7..................65%
6. Seattle -2.5.................63%
7. Jacksonville +2.5............63%
8. Dallas -3.5...................62% MNF
9. Washington +3............61%
10. San Diego +1.............58%
11. San Francisco -4.........57%
12. NY Giants +2..............56% SNF
13. Cleveland +12.............55% TNF
Power Rankings Week 4
1. Houston Texans - 31.76 ( - )
No change at the top from last week, nor would we have expected any.
The Texans went into Denver and showed why they are the team to beat in
the AFC. They can rush it, 150 ypg, and they can stop the rush, 68 ypg.
If they need to throw it Schaub is more than capable, sporting a 102.4
passer rating. After 3 weeks they are the class of the league.
2. Atlanta Falcons - 29.77 (+12)
A
big move up for the Falcons this week. Nice win going out to San Diego
and knocking off a 2-0 Charger team. The Falcons are now 3-0 and in
total control of the NFC South. The Falcons will battle for the top
spot and #1 seed in the NFC this year, mainly because that division
looks very week. Regular seasons have not been a problem for the Matt
Ryan Falcons. The playoffs have. The owner and fans have much higher
expectations this season than in the past. They want at least a Super
Bowl appearance. With the 3rd ranked defense and 5th ranked offense
perhaps they can.
3. Denver Broncos - 28.8 (+1)
Maybe
there are some more deserving teams to be 3 but the computer does not
think so. The reason being is the Broncos have played the toughest
schedule in the NFL and they have had a chance to win every game. Most
teams playing a similar 3 games would have looked a lot worse. But the
computers will not be nearly as kind if they lose this week to Oakland.
Even a marginal win won't help the cause. Manning has completed 60% of
his passes for 824 yards but much of that is because they have been
battling from behind.
4. Baltimore Ravens - 27.32 (+1)
The
Ravens escaped week 3 with a win but it wasn't easy. The game was
marred by bad officiating once again. 11 first downs as a result of a
penalty in the game. But they did get the win and move up 1 spot to
number 4. The Raven offense is second to only the Giants in my
rankings. The defense is ranked just 17th. If they can find a way to
get this defense in the top 10 they will be tough to beat. Until that
time they are vulnerable giving up 290 ypg in the air and 112 ypg on the
ground.
5. Arizona Cardinals - 26.52 (+1)
Many
people questioned this team being 6th overall last week. Fewer will
question them this week at number 5 after the handled the eagles easily
and move to 3-0 The Cards are not without issues averaging just 181 ypg
in the air. But where they lack offensively they are making up on
defense. They are giving up just 82 YPG on the ground and 13 PPG.
6. Seattle Seahawks - 25.86 (+4)
Overshadowed
by bad calls was the fact that Seattle played one hell of a game
defensively on Monday night. The Seahawks threw a first half shutout
and sacked Rodgers 8 times. They held the Pack to just 12 points and
268 total yards. On the flip side they only had 238 total yards
themselves. They continue to be run first averaging 141 ypg on the
ground. Maybe the NFC West is not so bad.
7. Green Bay Packers - 25.61 (+1)
Pretty
tough way to lose a game but they are not the first to have a late bad
call go against them. I can name a ton off the top of my head. The
difference here is the public expected the replacement refs to mess up
and they did. But what is not being talked about is how bad Green Bay
has looked. Without the help of some bad calls themselves they may have
only scored 6 points in the game. Rodgers is 19th in passing yards
after finishing 5th last season. That probably has more to do with the
Packer offensive line than Rodgers but either way production is way
down.
8. San Francisco 49ers - 25.42 (-5)
Big
drop for the team last week considered the best in the NFC. The 49ers
looked pretty pedestrian in their game at Minnesota. The Niners rushed
for just 89 yards. They gave up 146 yards on the ground to AP and
company. With the NFC West looking much stronger the Niners may not
have the cake walk to the playoffs as once thought. They travel east
this week to take on the Jets. Without Revis, Smith will have a better
chance to get back to what he did in the first two weeks when he had a
115.9 passer rating.
9. New England Patriots - 24.95 (+5)
Despite
a loss, the Pats move up 5 spots to #9. Another national game mired by
bad call after bad call. But the Patriot offense looked like the one
we are used to with 30 points and almost 400 yards of total offense.
But was this a case of the Patriots finding it or the Ravens defense
losing it. This week they face an even worse ranked defense in Buffalo
(29th). Look for Brady to build on last weeks numbers.
10. Dallas Cowboys - 24.88 (-1)
Cowboys
get a win but they were not very impressive in doing so. The offense
has sputtered the last two weeks scoring a total of 23 points over that
time. Defensively they are 3 in my rankings. This offense has the fire
power to be much better than they have shown ranking 25. The only
solid game they have had was against one of the poorest defenses so far,
the Giants. This week they have an interesting matchup at home against
Chicago. The Bears are 9th in my defensive rankings. The Cowboy
offense could sputter again.
11. New York Giants - 24.73 (+11)
One
of biggest moves up this week and deservedly so. The defending champs
finally looked like it when they dominated the Panthers on both sides of
the ball. The Giants are my number 1 ranked offense but the 30th
ranked defense. The Giant defense is all about the pass rush and they
haven't gotten much of one yet. Just 6 sacks in 3 games after 48 a year
ago.
12. Philadelphia Eagles - 24.04 (-10)
A
big drop this week for the Eagles after taking a beating in Arizona. 3
more turnovers to add to their league leading total of 12. The Eagles
are 5th in total yards and tied for last with the Cowboys in points
scored. That is tough to do. The fix is obvious, handle the ball
better, but they have yet to prove they can do it. Could be a good
fantasy day for Philly players going up against the Giants this Sunday
night.
13. Miami Dolphins - 22.77 (-6)
As
expected Miami drops out of the top 10. They had their chances to beat
the Jets last week but they blew it in OT. The one thing you can not
do against Miami team is run the ball. They are averaging 57 ypg
against on the ground. They face the 3-0 Cardinals this week who really
have not run it well yet. I would expect the Miami defense to be
stingy again on the ground.
14. New York Jets - 22.76 (+2)
Big
OT win in Miami last week but in the process they lost All Pro CB
Darrelle Revis for the season with a torn ACL. The Jets are supposed to
be built on defense. They are currently ranked 23 and without Revis
may see a dip from there. This week they get to face SF off a loss.
Not a good spot for the Jets but they are home. If the Jets have any
thoughts of getting to the playoffs a win this week would help.
15. Chicago Bears - 22.74 (+4)
The
Bears moved to 2-1 but the two wins have been against two of the worst
teams in the league. When facing a quality opponent the Bears did not
show anything. This week they play at Dallas on Monday night. The
passing game for the Bears is way below what was expected this season.
They are averaging 186 ypg in the air and Dallas is yielding just 137
ypg passing. May want to bench Cutler this week if you have a decent
backup fantasy option.
16. Pittsburgh Steelers - 22.18 (-5)
Steelers
lost a tough road game after looking like they had it in hand. Big Ben
has the 2nd best QB rating of 109.2 but they are getting nothing from
the running game averaging 65 ypg on the ground. The Steelers get a
week off to try and figure out how to get the running game going.
17. Buffalo Bills 20.71 (+10)
Big
move up for Buffalo after going into Cleveland and getting the win.
Not terribly impressive I know but a win is a win. This team is now 2-1
in an NFC East that may be weaker than originally thought. The Bills
lose Spiller but will be getting Fred Jackson back as early as this
week. They will need him to keep up the pace Spiller set. They are
running it 178 ypg right now. That will serve them well as the weather
turns shortly.
18. Minnesota Vikings - 20.52 (+13)
Huge
win for the Vikings and Chris Ponder. Ponder continues to impress with
a 70.1% completion percentage. The running game doubled its yearly
output last week with 146 yards. If they can run it like that with
Ponder playing well the Vikings may make a climb up the rankings.
Detroit is up next and have a sub par rushing and passing defense.
Could be a good offensive week for the Vikings.
19. Kansas City Chiefs - 20.35 (+10)
The
Chiefs surprised many and ruined a lot of survivor pools by coming from
behind and defeating the Saints in New Orleans. We had that as our top
play of the week and cashed in nicely. The Chiefs looked awful for two
games but the Saints defense was just what the doctor ordered. The
Chiefs scored 27 and in regulation got 250 yards on the ground. 2 big
runs helped pad those numbers. This week they play the Chargers who
have been stingy against the run. Do not expect a repeat rushing
performance.
20. San Diego Chargers - 19.75 (-2)
The
Chargers finally played a real opponent and they got blown out at home
by Atlanta. San Diego had just 164 yards in the air last week in a game
they were down from the start. Rivers does not have the same weapons
he once did and maybe that is catching up to them. Rivers has just an
86.5 passer rating. The team ranks 29th in offense but a solid 4 in
defense.
21. Jacksonville Jaguars - 18.37 (-)
Despite
a win on the road the Jags stay at the 21st spot on the list. Gabbert
remains awful going 10 of 21 for 155 yards, 80 of which came on that
last TD throw to Cecil Shorts. This week they get the Bengals at home.
This is a spot we could see a big day from MJD.
22. St. Louis Rams - 18.12 (-5)
Not
a very inspired effort in Chicago last week for the Rams. Just 6
points and 160 total yards. Those kind of numbers will not win many
games. This week they face a tough defense as Seattle comes in to
town. This may not be a good week for Steven Jackson in fantasy.
Seattle is 6th in defense and is holding opposing teams to 20 less yards
per game on the ground than they average.
23. Detroit Lions - 17.95 (-11)
Losing
to a team that has looked as bad as Tennessee will not do much to help
your rankings. Detroit had a dramatic comeback in the final 20 seconds
scoring 2 td's to get the game to OT. But in OT they elected to go for a
4th and 1 instead of kicking the game tying fg and it didn't work.
Detroit is a defensive mess right now ranked 28th. Offensively they are
getting it done at 8th overall but its hard to win a shootout every
week. Minnesota is up next and has the 16th ranked defense. I would
expect the Lions to be able to put points up. As always you want their
offensive players in fantasy.
24. Cincinnati Bengals - 17.70 (+7)
Nice
win on the road for the Bengals in DC last week. Andy Dalton boasts
the 4th best QB rating at 105.0. They face Jacksonville this week. The
Jags have been bad against the pass so far. Dalton and his WR could be
a good option in fantasy leagues this week.
25. Indianapolis Colts - 16.98 (+1)
The
experts love Luck and have not said anything critical about the rookie
yet. Thus far he has been a sub par performer. 75.4 passer rating and
53.3% completion percentage. I am not saying he is a bust by any
means. He only has 3 games in the NFL under his belt. It could take a
QB years to really understand how to play in this league. But I am
saying the experts seem to want so desperately for him to be a Hall of
Fame QB that they aren't looking at anything negative. He will need
more help around him in the future to reach the potential. Right now
this team will linger near the bottom of the pack.
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 16.8 (-2)
It
seems like since the start of the second half of the Giant game this
offense has disappeared. Just 75 yards on the ground and 91 yards in
the air last week. It's surprising that they were even able to keep the
game competitive. The defense has been solid for 10 of the 12 quarters
they have played. But is that just a product of playing bad offenses
in Carolina and Dallas? Looks to be that way so far.
27. Oakland Raiders - 16.68 (-7)
Oakland
drops 7 spots even after a win over Pittsburgh. In the win they were
really dominated by the Pittsburgh offense. Big Ben threw for 379 yard
against them and scored 31. Oakland may have been lucky to win this
game. Oakland ranks 27th in defense and now has to go in to a hostile
Denver and face a team that we have ranked 3rd that is itching to have a
big game.
28. Washington Redskins - 15.81 (-13)
Things
started out so well for the Skins but a late collapse in St Louis
followed by a defensive bombing in the home opener and this team is
suddenly near the bottom of the rankings. RG III is doing his part, 6th
in passer rating 4 TD and 1 Int but he has been sacked 9 times. The
defense is averaging almost 34 points against. You understand giving up
points to the Saints in the Dome but the Rams and Bengals offenses were
not that impressive in other games. There may be a lot more work to do
in DC.
29. Cleveland Browns - 14.64 (-1)
What
can you say about the Browns so far. They are my dead last offensive
rated team. In 3 games they played teams that are an average 19th
ranked in defense and have yet to move the ball with any vigor. Weeden
is really struggling throwing 3 TD's and 6 picks so far. The defense is
ranked 19th but the number 2 offense Ravens are up next. Another long
season in Cleveland.
30. Carolina Panthers - 14.05 (-5)
A
lot of people took offense to the Panthers being 25th last week but
they pretty much played like a bottom of the barrel team against the
Giants. I was worried about Cam this season as I said last week. We
can now add last week to the list of sub par games over his last 9.
Outside of torching the Saints this offense is struggling. They are
ranked 31st in offense. Don't expect a big fantasy week for Panther
players going against the 5th ranked Falcons defense this week.
31. New Orleans Saints - 12.07 (-8)
This
team has been the survivor pool killer so far. 0-3 for a team picked
to contend for a Super Bowl. And they have not played the toughest
schedule. As a matter of fact each team they lost to has 1 win. Drew
Brees has passed for a lot of yardage but he is completing just 54.7% of
his passes. For his career he is 65.7%. The defense is ranked dead
last in the league. This week a struggling offense that is looking to
wake up is on the schedule. The Packers should be able to put up points
on the Saints this week. The Saints offense will be in for a challenge
with the Packers ranked 7th in defense.
32. Tennessee Titans - 10.99 (-2)
Tennessee
wins and still drops to last. Maybe a good omen as Cincinnati was able
to win from the bottom spot last week. Tennessee is ranked dead last
in defense. Teams are scoring 12 more points per game against them then
they average. Things do not get easier this week as they face the best
team in the league Houston. A strong showing, even in a loss, will
move them up the list but a blowout may keep them right where they are.
BOL
--
-Stats
Twitter:@statsational
Subscribe To
Posts
All Comments
Friday, September 28, 2012
Thursday, September 20, 2012
NFL Week 3 Picks and Power Rankings
This year I am introducing my own NFL Power Rankings. Each week I will send along the updated power rankings with the picks.
The rankings are strictly statistically based. The computer has no bias toward any team. As teams play their schedule the rankings will look to determine who is the best current team based on their performance in each game. The rankings very well may look differently than the actual standings. It may also differ from some popular power ranking systems. It will most certainly differ from the power ranking system the so called experts on ESPN or NFL Network will have. One of my favorite forms of entertainment is seeing who the "Super Bowl Winner" is each week. What I mean by that is each week there is a team or a few teams that the media will crown the Super Bowl Champion. They will talk up a team each week until that team falters. Then they will look to someone else as the darling. They make you think certain teams are unbeatable. With recent Super Bowl history we can not say anyone is unbeatable anymore.
1. Houston Texans - 31.76
The Texans have not exactly played the toughest of opponents thus far but their win over Miami looks a bit better after Miami dismantled the Raiders this week. Houston may have been the best overall team going into the playoffs last season had they had a healthy Schaub. The Texans face their toughest opponent to date this week. They head out to Denver to face a very good Bronco team who have a QB that will try and test the #1 ranked defense.
2. Philadelphia Eagles - 29.27
Philly is off to a 2-0 start but they could just as easily be 0-2. Philly has been dominant in both games they played, especially offensively. Where they are hurting is in the turnover department. Philly has 9 turnovers already this year. Luckily for them their defense has forced 6 turnovers of their own. If they can finish the season +6 or more they may very well have the best record in the NFC. That is a huge if however and one I am not sure they are capable of.
3. San Francisco 49ers - 29.11
Maybe a surprise they are below Philly after two impressive wins to start the season. The formula last season was, take it away and don't give it up. SF finished the regular season +28 in turnovers which helped give them the 2nd best NFC record. Ironically it would be 2 special teams turnovers that would do them in in the Championship Game. This season they seem to be relying more on Alex Smith and he has answered so far with a 115.9 passer rating.
4. Denver Broncos - 27.85
Denver comes in a bit higher than most would have anticipated and is our first 1 loss team on the list. That loss coming Monday night in Atlanta. The Broncos turned it over 4 times in the 1st quarter and were still in the game late. Denver's defense kept games close until Tebow could work his magic last season. This season the defense has a QB who can put points up and take some pressure off them. If the defense stays in form this team will win the AFC West and have a possible bye come playoff time.
5. Baltimore Ravens - 27.10Many had the all Harbaugh Super Bowl penciled in after both looked good against playoff opponents in week 1. But not so fast. Baltimore was turned away in Philly Sunday. The once vaunted defense gave up 357 yards passing and 129 yards on the ground in week 2. This team is making a transition from the Ray Lewis, Ed Reed Ravens to the Joe Flacco, Ray Rice Ravens. We will see if this offense is good enough to pick up the slack on the defensive side of the ball. So far they are the top rated offense in my rankings. Hard to believe I am typing that about a Ravens team.
6. Arizona Cardinals - 27.03
Yes that's right the Arizona Cardinals are 6th on the list. Quite frankly why not. They are 2-0 and the defense has looked pretty good holding Tom Brady to just 18 points at home. Their win over Seattle looks a bit better after the Seahawks dismantled the Cowboys last week. Philly is next up on the schedule for the Cards. We will get a much better picture of whether this team is for real or not after this week.
7. Miami Dolphins - 25.91
Really? Yeah I know I am a bit surprised myself. I personally thought the Dolphins were the worst team in football this season. Clearly after two weeks they are not. They were able to handle Oakland rather easily. That was an Oakland team who probably beats the Chargers in week 1 had they had a long snapper. After two weeks they are ranked 12 in total defense but just 18th on my list. We will see if they can improve on that as they face the Jets this week. Depending on which team shows up for the Jets maybe Miami moves even higher? Gasp!!!
8. Green Bay Packers - 25.88
Do I think Miami is better than GB? No. But right now the Packers have not played any better than Miami has. If you watched both games the Pack played this year they have no looked very much like the 15-1 team of a year ago. In 2011 they averaged 405.1 YPG. Thus far in 2012 only 322.5 YPG. I would not count that offense out just yet but there have been some troubling signs in the first two weeks. They face a defense that has looked good so far in Seattle next weekend. A place that is always tough to win. Perhaps Finley will stop dropping balls. That would help.
9. Dallas Cowboys - 25.16
After handling the Super Bowl champs in their building on the night they got their rings, the Cowboys go into Seattle and lay a dud. One of the Cowboys issues is they are not forcing turnovers. Just one take away in 2 weeks won't get it done in this league. We can give Dallas a pass on the Seattle game if they can take care of business at home against a Tampa team that almost pulled an upset in NJ this past week.
10. Seattle Seahawks - 24.77Speaking of Seattle here they are making the top 10 after an impressive win over Dallas. Pete Carroll is a defensive minded head coach and he has his team playing well on that side of the ball. They are 6th in total defense and 8th on my list. They easily could have won the Arizona game and be 2-0. It appears SF may have some competition in that division this season.
11. Pittsburgh Steelers - 24.63
The Steelers avoided going 0-2 by handling the Jets soundly last week limiting them to 10 points and 219 yards of total offense. Their ranking may be a bit inflated do to the fact that the Jets looked so good offensively in week 1. A trip to Oakland is next for the Steelers. They may be able to move their way up the rankings if they come up with a solid effort in a hostile environment. Everyone expects that division to be tight but I have some doubts about Pittsburgh.
12. Detroit Lions - 24.14
The Lions have not started off looking very impressive. Part of that was going on the road to play one of the best teams in the league last week. But in week 1 at home they were lucky to have gotten away with a win. If not for poor officiating they could be 0-2. The 5th ranked offense in yards last season is just 14th this season. With Tennessee up next this team had better show a major improvement or they will not be returning to the playoffs.
13. Atlanta Falcons - 23.42
Most think this team is the class of the NFC South and many think they may be the class of the NFC. Thus far on the field they haven't shown it despite being 2-0. Last weeks win, while a win, was still troubling. They were given 4 early turnovers and yet could not put away the Broncos. Atlanta is 26th in rushing yards per game. I know they want to throw it more and feel they have the weapons to do it. That said they need to run it much better than they have shown to be a contender for the NFC title.
14. New England Patriots - 21.03
Easily the most shocking game of 2012 was New England losing at home to Arizona. Sometimes these early season shockers are not as big a shocker as the season plays out. I am not ready to pour dirt on New England just yet but you have to be troubled if you are a Patriots fan with their performance. The Pats are still 6th in total yards. What you worry about is if the defense is good enough. Currently they rank 2 in total yards on defense. The problem is they have not faced a great offense yet. This week they face my number 1 offense. If the Pats want to make a move up the list this game will can do it for them.
15. Washington Redskins - 20.88
They set the NFL world on fire in Week 1 defeating the Saints in the Dome but that win looks a little less impressive after the Saints looked bad in Carolina. In week 2 if not for a dumb personal foul late they may have gone to 2-0. So far you have to like RGIII who is 5th with a 111.6 passer rating. He can throw it and adds a weapon to one of the best play callers in the leagues arsenal, his speed. RGIII might be a fantasy darling when its all said and done but is it enough to move the Redskins into the playoffs?
16. NY Jets - 20.68
So who are the real Jets? The week 1 team that had a QB look like an all pro or the week 2 QB that has all of NY asking when they will see Tebow. What carried this team to back to back AFC championship games was its defense. And that defense was average at best last season and has not shown to be much better this year. I have them ranked 18th in defense right now. They will need to be at a minimum in the top 10 if they are going to make the playoffs. Early on this looks like a 7 or 8 win team.
17. St Louis Rams - 20.67
The Rams may have made the best offseason transaction of all when they signed Jeff Fisher. Coach Fisher is always one of the most prepared coaches in the league. After 2 weeks he has a team that could be 2-0 but they also could be 0-2. I guess 1-1 is about right. Bradford has been great so far with a 112.4 passer rating. If the defense can step up maybe this team can win more games than expected in the NFC West.
18. San Diego Chargers - 20.25
A bit low on the list for a team that is 2-0. The reason for the 18th rank is really who they have played so far. And it is not impressive. Neither Oakland nor Tennessee has shown much this season. A lot of the names have changed on offense for San Diego. They rank just 25th on my list in offense. Interesting matchup this week as Atlanta comes in to town in a game that may tell us a lot more about both teams.
19. Chicago Bears - 20.05
Once again there was a lot of hype around the Bears offense. They bring in a Jay Cutler favorite in Brandon Marshall this season but thus far the pair have not been able to help this offense move the ball. They are averaging 298 yards in total offense in the first two weeks. Forte is now down but they have a very good back up in Bush. Cutler needs to live up to his talented arm to get this team to where they think they should be.
20. Oakland Raiders - 19.76
Oakland gets a pass in week one as losing the long snapper hurt their chances against San Diego. Although I think they could have done some things to help the snapper out. But then they go into Miami and allow Reggie Bush to gain 172 yards on the ground. On a positive note Carson Palmer has 670 yards tossing it. The problem is he is connecting on only 59.6% of his passes.
21. Jacksonville Jaguars - 18.78
Not much to get excited about here. A lot of hope that Gabbert would take a step up this season but thus far we have not seen that. He is connecting on just 51.6% of his passes. That will not lead to many wins in a league that is relying more on more on the passing game. Defensively its not that much better. Jacksonville is giving up 400 yards per game currently 23rd.
22. New York Giants - 18.63
This may be the biggest surprise on the list. The Giants are defending Super Bowl champs but they are currently 22 on my rankings behind some pretty bad teams. The fact is the Giants have not looked good. The rankings can not factor in how good Eli Manning is at the end of games however. Last season he had 6 4th quarter comebacks and this season he adds another. The real question is how many times can you rely on him to do that. This could be a disappointing season for the Giants who are trying to validate their title this year.
23. New Orleans Saints - 17.20
The computer doesn't know anything about the Saints other than they have not been good at all on defense this year. The Saints rank dead last in yards allowed with 922 and dead last in giveaways at -4. No matter how well the offense performs they will need to get a lot better on defense to be a team that is going to contend. One of the worst teams in the league comes into the Dome this week so its a good week to get healthy for the Saints.
24. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 17.00
Heartbreaking loss last week as they had the champs down late in the game but they could not finish. What stands out is they are being very stingy against the run at just 52 yards per game. The flip side of that is they got torched by Eli last week for 510 yards passing. I do think they are improved over last season but are they ready to make a push to a playoff spot. I don't think so yet.
25. Carolina Panthers - 16.55
After a big season from Cam Newton last year Panther fans are expecting this team to make a big jump in the NFC South. The question is has the league figured out Cam Newton? Cam slowed down in the last 6 games of 2011. In Week 1 Tampa was able to handle him holding the QB to just 4 yards rushing and turning him over twice. In week 2 they faced an awful Saints defense and Cam looked like Cam again. Lets see how they look Thursday against a team that has not been great on defense either the NY Giants.
26. Indianapolis Colts - 15.97
Peyton is gone and the Luck era has begun. So far mixed reviews. They are 1-1 but have looked shaky at times in both games. Luck has thrown 3 picks so far in his young career. There may be some growing pains here. Not much is expected from a team that is looking to rebuild.
27. Buffalo Bills - 15.85
Many picked the Bills as the surprise team of the AFC East. It is still early and they very well may be. Everyone in the division are 1-1 so nobody has taken the early hold on it. The Bills may have found something with CJ Spiller. Spiller has been the man in fantasy leagues so far rushing for 292 yards in two games. Buffalo is favored to go to 2-1 and move up the rankings this week in Clevaland.
28. Cleveland Browns - 15.50
Same old Browns so far. They had a chance at the big upset in Week 1 against Philly but they couldn't pull it off. They are +1 in turnovers and still 0-2. That is troubling. The defense has been torched for 831 total yards so far. Their offense is no where near good enough to make up for that.
29. Kansas City Chiefs - 15.34
To the eye I am not sure any team has looked worse than the Chiefs so far. Cassel has never panned out to be the QB they thought they were getting from NE. He is also running for his life most games. The opponents have sacked him 8 times thus far. I am not sure where to look for a positive here. The Chiefs look bad.
30. Tennessee Titans - 14.04
If anyone could look worse than the Chiefs it would be the Titans. So far they have not been in either game they played. They have played two opponents who figure to be tough however. Next up for Tennessee is Detroit so it does not get much easier. This defense ranks 29 on my list. The Lions offense has not clicked yet. Which side will figure it out?
31. Minnesota Vikings - 13.99
Despite a 1-1 record the Vikings are way down at 31 on my rankings. They squeaked by a bad Jacksonville team at home and then lost at Indy. I have this team ranked 28th in offense thus far. Adrian Peterson needs to be this offense and he has gotten off to a luke warm start with 144 yards on the ground. Ponder has looked good with a 110.6 passer rating and a 75.8 completion percentage. But that was against two poor defenses. Lets see what they can do against the best defense in football this week.
32. Cincinnati Bengals - 13.33
The Bengals are a playoff team from a year ago but find themselves at the bottom of my list early on despite being 1-1. The main reason for that is when they played Baltimore they were dominated statistically and they were not able to dominate a bad Cleveland team in the same way. The Bengals will no doubt finish the year much higher than this but how good are they really?
It is very early and as the season goes along the rankings will normalize a bit more. One great or horrible game can really move you up or down. It will be interesting to see if the ones that look surprising now continue to surprise or if they will revert back to what we think they should be.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
There are 8 home dogs this week. It was 9 until all the injuries for the Giants were reported. That is highly unusual. The squares bet with two fists on weeks like this. They see the stronger team laying a small number and it looks too good to be true. Its an "easy" play. Hopefully for us this week is a week the books do very well, because if they do we should also.
Week 3 picks
1. Kansas City +9....................72%
2. Seattle +3............................71%
3. New England +3...................70%
4. Cincinnati +3........................70%
5. Arizona +3.5.........................66%
6. Denver +2.5...........................65%
7. Chicago -7............................62%
8. Tennessee +3.5....................58%
9. Atlanta +3............................58%
10. Pittsburgh -4.......................57%
11. Tampa Bay +7.5..................53%
Kansas City is a top play once again. After getting destroyed in Weeks 1 and 2 this looks like suicide, and perhaps it is. But remember the oddsmakers set a line and are willing to take action on either side of that game. They know they wont have any KC bets outside of Matt Cassels dad. So without a doubt they have to inflate the line. They just can not push it too high or they will be bombarded by sharp money. Sharps do not fear betting any team at any time. Squares do. No team goes 16-0 ATS and no team goes 0-16. Will KC cover? I hope so, but even if they don't it will not deter me from taking them in the future. Last year I had a lot of emails on the Colts and Miami early on in the season. Both of those teams wound up finishing pretty strong in the second half of the year ATS.
Some of the games may not agree with the power rankings above. The power rankings are strictly based on how teams have performed so far this season. The picks are based on historical trends. Teams in certain situations covering a certain percentage of the time. Lines are based more on perceptions than anything else which is why the trend system has been successful. The betting public knows only what it has seen and has a hard time of seeing what has not yet happened. Much like in trading. A stock is trading at its all time high of $50.00. Many traders are hesitant to buy at the high. It then moves to $60.00 in the next few weeks. If the stock retraces back to $50.00 then more people will feel comfortable buying it there because they have seen it go higher. The first time at $50.00 they could not envision it going to that $60.00 price. This is how Elliot Waves work. I wont get into details on that here but if interested there is plenty of material on EW on the net.
BOL
--
-Stats
Twitter:@statsational
The rankings are strictly statistically based. The computer has no bias toward any team. As teams play their schedule the rankings will look to determine who is the best current team based on their performance in each game. The rankings very well may look differently than the actual standings. It may also differ from some popular power ranking systems. It will most certainly differ from the power ranking system the so called experts on ESPN or NFL Network will have. One of my favorite forms of entertainment is seeing who the "Super Bowl Winner" is each week. What I mean by that is each week there is a team or a few teams that the media will crown the Super Bowl Champion. They will talk up a team each week until that team falters. Then they will look to someone else as the darling. They make you think certain teams are unbeatable. With recent Super Bowl history we can not say anyone is unbeatable anymore.
1. Houston Texans - 31.76
The Texans have not exactly played the toughest of opponents thus far but their win over Miami looks a bit better after Miami dismantled the Raiders this week. Houston may have been the best overall team going into the playoffs last season had they had a healthy Schaub. The Texans face their toughest opponent to date this week. They head out to Denver to face a very good Bronco team who have a QB that will try and test the #1 ranked defense.
2. Philadelphia Eagles - 29.27
Philly is off to a 2-0 start but they could just as easily be 0-2. Philly has been dominant in both games they played, especially offensively. Where they are hurting is in the turnover department. Philly has 9 turnovers already this year. Luckily for them their defense has forced 6 turnovers of their own. If they can finish the season +6 or more they may very well have the best record in the NFC. That is a huge if however and one I am not sure they are capable of.
3. San Francisco 49ers - 29.11
Maybe a surprise they are below Philly after two impressive wins to start the season. The formula last season was, take it away and don't give it up. SF finished the regular season +28 in turnovers which helped give them the 2nd best NFC record. Ironically it would be 2 special teams turnovers that would do them in in the Championship Game. This season they seem to be relying more on Alex Smith and he has answered so far with a 115.9 passer rating.
4. Denver Broncos - 27.85
Denver comes in a bit higher than most would have anticipated and is our first 1 loss team on the list. That loss coming Monday night in Atlanta. The Broncos turned it over 4 times in the 1st quarter and were still in the game late. Denver's defense kept games close until Tebow could work his magic last season. This season the defense has a QB who can put points up and take some pressure off them. If the defense stays in form this team will win the AFC West and have a possible bye come playoff time.
5. Baltimore Ravens - 27.10Many had the all Harbaugh Super Bowl penciled in after both looked good against playoff opponents in week 1. But not so fast. Baltimore was turned away in Philly Sunday. The once vaunted defense gave up 357 yards passing and 129 yards on the ground in week 2. This team is making a transition from the Ray Lewis, Ed Reed Ravens to the Joe Flacco, Ray Rice Ravens. We will see if this offense is good enough to pick up the slack on the defensive side of the ball. So far they are the top rated offense in my rankings. Hard to believe I am typing that about a Ravens team.
6. Arizona Cardinals - 27.03
Yes that's right the Arizona Cardinals are 6th on the list. Quite frankly why not. They are 2-0 and the defense has looked pretty good holding Tom Brady to just 18 points at home. Their win over Seattle looks a bit better after the Seahawks dismantled the Cowboys last week. Philly is next up on the schedule for the Cards. We will get a much better picture of whether this team is for real or not after this week.
7. Miami Dolphins - 25.91
Really? Yeah I know I am a bit surprised myself. I personally thought the Dolphins were the worst team in football this season. Clearly after two weeks they are not. They were able to handle Oakland rather easily. That was an Oakland team who probably beats the Chargers in week 1 had they had a long snapper. After two weeks they are ranked 12 in total defense but just 18th on my list. We will see if they can improve on that as they face the Jets this week. Depending on which team shows up for the Jets maybe Miami moves even higher? Gasp!!!
8. Green Bay Packers - 25.88
Do I think Miami is better than GB? No. But right now the Packers have not played any better than Miami has. If you watched both games the Pack played this year they have no looked very much like the 15-1 team of a year ago. In 2011 they averaged 405.1 YPG. Thus far in 2012 only 322.5 YPG. I would not count that offense out just yet but there have been some troubling signs in the first two weeks. They face a defense that has looked good so far in Seattle next weekend. A place that is always tough to win. Perhaps Finley will stop dropping balls. That would help.
9. Dallas Cowboys - 25.16
After handling the Super Bowl champs in their building on the night they got their rings, the Cowboys go into Seattle and lay a dud. One of the Cowboys issues is they are not forcing turnovers. Just one take away in 2 weeks won't get it done in this league. We can give Dallas a pass on the Seattle game if they can take care of business at home against a Tampa team that almost pulled an upset in NJ this past week.
10. Seattle Seahawks - 24.77Speaking of Seattle here they are making the top 10 after an impressive win over Dallas. Pete Carroll is a defensive minded head coach and he has his team playing well on that side of the ball. They are 6th in total defense and 8th on my list. They easily could have won the Arizona game and be 2-0. It appears SF may have some competition in that division this season.
11. Pittsburgh Steelers - 24.63
The Steelers avoided going 0-2 by handling the Jets soundly last week limiting them to 10 points and 219 yards of total offense. Their ranking may be a bit inflated do to the fact that the Jets looked so good offensively in week 1. A trip to Oakland is next for the Steelers. They may be able to move their way up the rankings if they come up with a solid effort in a hostile environment. Everyone expects that division to be tight but I have some doubts about Pittsburgh.
12. Detroit Lions - 24.14
The Lions have not started off looking very impressive. Part of that was going on the road to play one of the best teams in the league last week. But in week 1 at home they were lucky to have gotten away with a win. If not for poor officiating they could be 0-2. The 5th ranked offense in yards last season is just 14th this season. With Tennessee up next this team had better show a major improvement or they will not be returning to the playoffs.
13. Atlanta Falcons - 23.42
Most think this team is the class of the NFC South and many think they may be the class of the NFC. Thus far on the field they haven't shown it despite being 2-0. Last weeks win, while a win, was still troubling. They were given 4 early turnovers and yet could not put away the Broncos. Atlanta is 26th in rushing yards per game. I know they want to throw it more and feel they have the weapons to do it. That said they need to run it much better than they have shown to be a contender for the NFC title.
14. New England Patriots - 21.03
Easily the most shocking game of 2012 was New England losing at home to Arizona. Sometimes these early season shockers are not as big a shocker as the season plays out. I am not ready to pour dirt on New England just yet but you have to be troubled if you are a Patriots fan with their performance. The Pats are still 6th in total yards. What you worry about is if the defense is good enough. Currently they rank 2 in total yards on defense. The problem is they have not faced a great offense yet. This week they face my number 1 offense. If the Pats want to make a move up the list this game will can do it for them.
15. Washington Redskins - 20.88
They set the NFL world on fire in Week 1 defeating the Saints in the Dome but that win looks a little less impressive after the Saints looked bad in Carolina. In week 2 if not for a dumb personal foul late they may have gone to 2-0. So far you have to like RGIII who is 5th with a 111.6 passer rating. He can throw it and adds a weapon to one of the best play callers in the leagues arsenal, his speed. RGIII might be a fantasy darling when its all said and done but is it enough to move the Redskins into the playoffs?
16. NY Jets - 20.68
So who are the real Jets? The week 1 team that had a QB look like an all pro or the week 2 QB that has all of NY asking when they will see Tebow. What carried this team to back to back AFC championship games was its defense. And that defense was average at best last season and has not shown to be much better this year. I have them ranked 18th in defense right now. They will need to be at a minimum in the top 10 if they are going to make the playoffs. Early on this looks like a 7 or 8 win team.
17. St Louis Rams - 20.67
The Rams may have made the best offseason transaction of all when they signed Jeff Fisher. Coach Fisher is always one of the most prepared coaches in the league. After 2 weeks he has a team that could be 2-0 but they also could be 0-2. I guess 1-1 is about right. Bradford has been great so far with a 112.4 passer rating. If the defense can step up maybe this team can win more games than expected in the NFC West.
18. San Diego Chargers - 20.25
A bit low on the list for a team that is 2-0. The reason for the 18th rank is really who they have played so far. And it is not impressive. Neither Oakland nor Tennessee has shown much this season. A lot of the names have changed on offense for San Diego. They rank just 25th on my list in offense. Interesting matchup this week as Atlanta comes in to town in a game that may tell us a lot more about both teams.
19. Chicago Bears - 20.05
Once again there was a lot of hype around the Bears offense. They bring in a Jay Cutler favorite in Brandon Marshall this season but thus far the pair have not been able to help this offense move the ball. They are averaging 298 yards in total offense in the first two weeks. Forte is now down but they have a very good back up in Bush. Cutler needs to live up to his talented arm to get this team to where they think they should be.
20. Oakland Raiders - 19.76
Oakland gets a pass in week one as losing the long snapper hurt their chances against San Diego. Although I think they could have done some things to help the snapper out. But then they go into Miami and allow Reggie Bush to gain 172 yards on the ground. On a positive note Carson Palmer has 670 yards tossing it. The problem is he is connecting on only 59.6% of his passes.
21. Jacksonville Jaguars - 18.78
Not much to get excited about here. A lot of hope that Gabbert would take a step up this season but thus far we have not seen that. He is connecting on just 51.6% of his passes. That will not lead to many wins in a league that is relying more on more on the passing game. Defensively its not that much better. Jacksonville is giving up 400 yards per game currently 23rd.
22. New York Giants - 18.63
This may be the biggest surprise on the list. The Giants are defending Super Bowl champs but they are currently 22 on my rankings behind some pretty bad teams. The fact is the Giants have not looked good. The rankings can not factor in how good Eli Manning is at the end of games however. Last season he had 6 4th quarter comebacks and this season he adds another. The real question is how many times can you rely on him to do that. This could be a disappointing season for the Giants who are trying to validate their title this year.
23. New Orleans Saints - 17.20
The computer doesn't know anything about the Saints other than they have not been good at all on defense this year. The Saints rank dead last in yards allowed with 922 and dead last in giveaways at -4. No matter how well the offense performs they will need to get a lot better on defense to be a team that is going to contend. One of the worst teams in the league comes into the Dome this week so its a good week to get healthy for the Saints.
24. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 17.00
Heartbreaking loss last week as they had the champs down late in the game but they could not finish. What stands out is they are being very stingy against the run at just 52 yards per game. The flip side of that is they got torched by Eli last week for 510 yards passing. I do think they are improved over last season but are they ready to make a push to a playoff spot. I don't think so yet.
25. Carolina Panthers - 16.55
After a big season from Cam Newton last year Panther fans are expecting this team to make a big jump in the NFC South. The question is has the league figured out Cam Newton? Cam slowed down in the last 6 games of 2011. In Week 1 Tampa was able to handle him holding the QB to just 4 yards rushing and turning him over twice. In week 2 they faced an awful Saints defense and Cam looked like Cam again. Lets see how they look Thursday against a team that has not been great on defense either the NY Giants.
26. Indianapolis Colts - 15.97
Peyton is gone and the Luck era has begun. So far mixed reviews. They are 1-1 but have looked shaky at times in both games. Luck has thrown 3 picks so far in his young career. There may be some growing pains here. Not much is expected from a team that is looking to rebuild.
27. Buffalo Bills - 15.85
Many picked the Bills as the surprise team of the AFC East. It is still early and they very well may be. Everyone in the division are 1-1 so nobody has taken the early hold on it. The Bills may have found something with CJ Spiller. Spiller has been the man in fantasy leagues so far rushing for 292 yards in two games. Buffalo is favored to go to 2-1 and move up the rankings this week in Clevaland.
28. Cleveland Browns - 15.50
Same old Browns so far. They had a chance at the big upset in Week 1 against Philly but they couldn't pull it off. They are +1 in turnovers and still 0-2. That is troubling. The defense has been torched for 831 total yards so far. Their offense is no where near good enough to make up for that.
29. Kansas City Chiefs - 15.34
To the eye I am not sure any team has looked worse than the Chiefs so far. Cassel has never panned out to be the QB they thought they were getting from NE. He is also running for his life most games. The opponents have sacked him 8 times thus far. I am not sure where to look for a positive here. The Chiefs look bad.
30. Tennessee Titans - 14.04
If anyone could look worse than the Chiefs it would be the Titans. So far they have not been in either game they played. They have played two opponents who figure to be tough however. Next up for Tennessee is Detroit so it does not get much easier. This defense ranks 29 on my list. The Lions offense has not clicked yet. Which side will figure it out?
31. Minnesota Vikings - 13.99
Despite a 1-1 record the Vikings are way down at 31 on my rankings. They squeaked by a bad Jacksonville team at home and then lost at Indy. I have this team ranked 28th in offense thus far. Adrian Peterson needs to be this offense and he has gotten off to a luke warm start with 144 yards on the ground. Ponder has looked good with a 110.6 passer rating and a 75.8 completion percentage. But that was against two poor defenses. Lets see what they can do against the best defense in football this week.
32. Cincinnati Bengals - 13.33
The Bengals are a playoff team from a year ago but find themselves at the bottom of my list early on despite being 1-1. The main reason for that is when they played Baltimore they were dominated statistically and they were not able to dominate a bad Cleveland team in the same way. The Bengals will no doubt finish the year much higher than this but how good are they really?
It is very early and as the season goes along the rankings will normalize a bit more. One great or horrible game can really move you up or down. It will be interesting to see if the ones that look surprising now continue to surprise or if they will revert back to what we think they should be.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
There are 8 home dogs this week. It was 9 until all the injuries for the Giants were reported. That is highly unusual. The squares bet with two fists on weeks like this. They see the stronger team laying a small number and it looks too good to be true. Its an "easy" play. Hopefully for us this week is a week the books do very well, because if they do we should also.
Week 3 picks
1. Kansas City +9....................72%
2. Seattle +3............................71%
3. New England +3...................70%
4. Cincinnati +3........................70%
5. Arizona +3.5.........................66%
6. Denver +2.5...........................65%
7. Chicago -7............................62%
8. Tennessee +3.5....................58%
9. Atlanta +3............................58%
10. Pittsburgh -4.......................57%
11. Tampa Bay +7.5..................53%
Kansas City is a top play once again. After getting destroyed in Weeks 1 and 2 this looks like suicide, and perhaps it is. But remember the oddsmakers set a line and are willing to take action on either side of that game. They know they wont have any KC bets outside of Matt Cassels dad. So without a doubt they have to inflate the line. They just can not push it too high or they will be bombarded by sharp money. Sharps do not fear betting any team at any time. Squares do. No team goes 16-0 ATS and no team goes 0-16. Will KC cover? I hope so, but even if they don't it will not deter me from taking them in the future. Last year I had a lot of emails on the Colts and Miami early on in the season. Both of those teams wound up finishing pretty strong in the second half of the year ATS.
Some of the games may not agree with the power rankings above. The power rankings are strictly based on how teams have performed so far this season. The picks are based on historical trends. Teams in certain situations covering a certain percentage of the time. Lines are based more on perceptions than anything else which is why the trend system has been successful. The betting public knows only what it has seen and has a hard time of seeing what has not yet happened. Much like in trading. A stock is trading at its all time high of $50.00. Many traders are hesitant to buy at the high. It then moves to $60.00 in the next few weeks. If the stock retraces back to $50.00 then more people will feel comfortable buying it there because they have seen it go higher. The first time at $50.00 they could not envision it going to that $60.00 price. This is how Elliot Waves work. I wont get into details on that here but if interested there is plenty of material on EW on the net.
BOL
--
-Stats
Twitter:@statsational
Wednesday, September 12, 2012
Statsational Week 2 Picks
1 week in the books and we put a couple of bucks in the wallet. We
finish the week 8-5-1 if you bought the half point on Minn or 8-6
straight up. Either way a profitable week. The top 4 picks were all
winners. Looking at the LVH Supercontest only 10 entries went 5-0 last
week. 63% of the contest were 2-3 or worse. A lot of very good
handicappers struggled a bit last week.
Several people have asked about various office pools that they participate in and how to use the games in them. I will go over a few pools and how you can use the plays to your advantage.
6 out of 6
This is a pool that you are forced to take 6 games and must win all 6 to win the pot. It is essentially a 6 team parlay. I would play the top 6 plays on my board each week. If you have another system that is successful you may want to combine plays that agree from mine and the other system. Last season in one of my emails I went over the math. I will copy past that below.
For each game we can either agree or disagree on the game. That leaves us 4 possible scenarios for each game
1. We both are correct
2. I am correct and you are incorrect
3. I am incorrect and you are correct
4. We both are wrong.
So lets take a scenario where you want to match my games with yours or another system that is hitting at 55%. My games are 60%. Using the numbers for each scenario above here are the calculations
1. 55%*60% = 33%
2. 60%*(100%-55%) = 27%
3. 55%*(100%-60%) = 22%
4. (100%-60%)*(100%-55%) = 18%
So in scenario 1 and 4 we would agree. Add 1 and 4 and get 51%. Then divide the 33% we are both right by the 51% total in games we agree and you get 64.70%. That would be what you would expect to hit if both systems continued at the same percentage and you only played games that agreed. Put this in excel and see the numbers for yourself. Essentially taking two systems that produce over 50% and combining them will get you a higher percentage of winners than each does individually. Also remember if you have a system that performs poorly that can be just as valuable as one that performs well. Picking 40% winners is just as good as 60% winners. Just fade the system. And if you are matching it to mine then use 60% as your percentage as well.
Survivor Pool
Also called an eliminator pool, this is a pool in which you pick one team a week straight up. If they lose you are out. You may only take each team once. In this pool I try not to go against any game in which I have the underdog as a play. And conversely I will look at all the favorites I have as plays and decide which I like from that group. If I do not like any I may go to a game that was not picked by the system. Week 1 I took Houston for instance. Remember the average game falls about 10 points from the line. That means the average 7 point underdog that wins ATS wins the game outright by 3.
Pick 'Em Pool
This pool requires you to pick the games straight up with no point spread. I actually find this pool the most difficult. Firstly I would take all of the favorites the system likes. Then I would take every double digit favorite regardless of whether the system likes the dog or not. I would then take any underdog under a td the system likes. Every dog the system likes from +7 to +10 I would take on a case by case basis.
Underdog Pool
This pool requires you to pick one team who is the underdog that week. If they win outright you get the point spread for your points. Last week I took Arizona and gained 3 points in the pool. My strategy here is to obviously only take underdogs the system likes. I would be conservative early, especially if the pool is not large, and take teams who are +3 to +5. As the season goes on you will know if you need to take teams that are a bit longer like +7 or greater. But I like to keep myself in the game as long as possible and make the tougher choices later in the season. This holds true with survivor pools as well. I am not a fan of taking risks early when I do not know as much as I will late.
----------------------------
There is generally an overreaction in Week 1 with certain teams. Either negatively or positively. Now that reaction is based solely on what our expectations were coming in to the new season. That does not mean the public won't be right with some of these. The overreaction is usually when we see what we expected to see, not what we didn't. For instance Atlanta and Baltimore were getting a lot of love this off season. Both came out and won big this week. That will fuel a bigger reaction than say the Saints losing at home. The public will give the Saints a pass for now. But when looking at week 2 games what is interesting is teams that lose in Week 1 and are Underdogs in Week 2 win ATS 54% of the time. That tells me the books tend to skew games toward the favorites in Week 2 knowing the public is now betting on what they saw in Week 1. This differs from Week 10. In Week 10 the public is looking at Week 9 but it also has Week 1-8 to think about. So overreactions early in the season are much more common.
With that said this weeks games have a bit of an underdog bias.
Week 2 Picks
1. Kansas City +3...................90%
2. Seattle +3...........................80%
3. Tampa Bay +7.5..................76%
4. Denver +3...........................67% MNF
5. Tennessee +6.....................63%
6. Oakland -2.5.......................62%
7. Jacksonville +7.5.................61%
8. Carolina +2.5......................61%
9. Detroit +7..,..........................57% SNF
10. Baltimore +2.5..................57%
11. New England -13.5.............56%
12. Green Bay -6.....................54% TNF
13. Cleveland +7......................54%
14. Indianapolis +1.5...................54%
15. Washington -3....................54%
The 90% on KC is the most I have ever seen. I have a ton of trends that all favor KC here. So I fully expect KC to cover this game. That does not mean I am going to do anything silly and risk my bankroll on one game. I mention this all the time but the key to any business (and this is a business) is to stay in business. Then make a profit. You can not make a profit tomorrow if you are closing the doors to the store today. So be smart with the money management. We had an 87% game in week 16 last year that did not win. So nothing is perfect. The strength of the system is that it will find the edges on the schedule and over time pick at a high percentage. Short term we can always get some swings either positive or negative.
Once again the rule on the half point buys is only if you are getting them at 10% juice do you make the buy. A lot of places give 20% which gives us no edge. Anything over that and it becomes a negative to us. If you can get 10% then move all games on or off the 3, 7 and 10. Since a small number can actually get the 10% I am going to post the plays as they are without any point buying. You will have to use your own judgement as to whether you are buying the half points or not.
BOL
--
-Stats
Twitter:@statsational
Several people have asked about various office pools that they participate in and how to use the games in them. I will go over a few pools and how you can use the plays to your advantage.
6 out of 6
This is a pool that you are forced to take 6 games and must win all 6 to win the pot. It is essentially a 6 team parlay. I would play the top 6 plays on my board each week. If you have another system that is successful you may want to combine plays that agree from mine and the other system. Last season in one of my emails I went over the math. I will copy past that below.
For each game we can either agree or disagree on the game. That leaves us 4 possible scenarios for each game
1. We both are correct
2. I am correct and you are incorrect
3. I am incorrect and you are correct
4. We both are wrong.
So lets take a scenario where you want to match my games with yours or another system that is hitting at 55%. My games are 60%. Using the numbers for each scenario above here are the calculations
1. 55%*60% = 33%
2. 60%*(100%-55%) = 27%
3. 55%*(100%-60%) = 22%
4. (100%-60%)*(100%-55%) = 18%
So in scenario 1 and 4 we would agree. Add 1 and 4 and get 51%. Then divide the 33% we are both right by the 51% total in games we agree and you get 64.70%. That would be what you would expect to hit if both systems continued at the same percentage and you only played games that agreed. Put this in excel and see the numbers for yourself. Essentially taking two systems that produce over 50% and combining them will get you a higher percentage of winners than each does individually. Also remember if you have a system that performs poorly that can be just as valuable as one that performs well. Picking 40% winners is just as good as 60% winners. Just fade the system. And if you are matching it to mine then use 60% as your percentage as well.
Survivor Pool
Also called an eliminator pool, this is a pool in which you pick one team a week straight up. If they lose you are out. You may only take each team once. In this pool I try not to go against any game in which I have the underdog as a play. And conversely I will look at all the favorites I have as plays and decide which I like from that group. If I do not like any I may go to a game that was not picked by the system. Week 1 I took Houston for instance. Remember the average game falls about 10 points from the line. That means the average 7 point underdog that wins ATS wins the game outright by 3.
Pick 'Em Pool
This pool requires you to pick the games straight up with no point spread. I actually find this pool the most difficult. Firstly I would take all of the favorites the system likes. Then I would take every double digit favorite regardless of whether the system likes the dog or not. I would then take any underdog under a td the system likes. Every dog the system likes from +7 to +10 I would take on a case by case basis.
Underdog Pool
This pool requires you to pick one team who is the underdog that week. If they win outright you get the point spread for your points. Last week I took Arizona and gained 3 points in the pool. My strategy here is to obviously only take underdogs the system likes. I would be conservative early, especially if the pool is not large, and take teams who are +3 to +5. As the season goes on you will know if you need to take teams that are a bit longer like +7 or greater. But I like to keep myself in the game as long as possible and make the tougher choices later in the season. This holds true with survivor pools as well. I am not a fan of taking risks early when I do not know as much as I will late.
----------------------------
There is generally an overreaction in Week 1 with certain teams. Either negatively or positively. Now that reaction is based solely on what our expectations were coming in to the new season. That does not mean the public won't be right with some of these. The overreaction is usually when we see what we expected to see, not what we didn't. For instance Atlanta and Baltimore were getting a lot of love this off season. Both came out and won big this week. That will fuel a bigger reaction than say the Saints losing at home. The public will give the Saints a pass for now. But when looking at week 2 games what is interesting is teams that lose in Week 1 and are Underdogs in Week 2 win ATS 54% of the time. That tells me the books tend to skew games toward the favorites in Week 2 knowing the public is now betting on what they saw in Week 1. This differs from Week 10. In Week 10 the public is looking at Week 9 but it also has Week 1-8 to think about. So overreactions early in the season are much more common.
With that said this weeks games have a bit of an underdog bias.
Week 2 Picks
1. Kansas City +3...................90%
2. Seattle +3...........................80%
3. Tampa Bay +7.5..................76%
4. Denver +3...........................67% MNF
5. Tennessee +6.....................63%
6. Oakland -2.5.......................62%
7. Jacksonville +7.5.................61%
8. Carolina +2.5......................61%
9. Detroit +7..,..........................57% SNF
10. Baltimore +2.5..................57%
11. New England -13.5.............56%
12. Green Bay -6.....................54% TNF
13. Cleveland +7......................54%
14. Indianapolis +1.5...................54%
15. Washington -3....................54%
The 90% on KC is the most I have ever seen. I have a ton of trends that all favor KC here. So I fully expect KC to cover this game. That does not mean I am going to do anything silly and risk my bankroll on one game. I mention this all the time but the key to any business (and this is a business) is to stay in business. Then make a profit. You can not make a profit tomorrow if you are closing the doors to the store today. So be smart with the money management. We had an 87% game in week 16 last year that did not win. So nothing is perfect. The strength of the system is that it will find the edges on the schedule and over time pick at a high percentage. Short term we can always get some swings either positive or negative.
Once again the rule on the half point buys is only if you are getting them at 10% juice do you make the buy. A lot of places give 20% which gives us no edge. Anything over that and it becomes a negative to us. If you can get 10% then move all games on or off the 3, 7 and 10. Since a small number can actually get the 10% I am going to post the plays as they are without any point buying. You will have to use your own judgement as to whether you are buying the half points or not.
BOL
--
-Stats
Twitter:@statsational
Thursday, September 6, 2012
Buying 1/2 points
Guys I want to clarify something on the 1/2 point buys.
If you can not move off or to a 3, 7 or 10 at 10% juice then do not make the play to buy. Only do this if you can get 10% juice. Most of you probably can not get that. What I am going to do in the future is just put the games with the line most can get. If you have the ability to buy a 1/2 point around those numbers then do so otherwise play them straight up.
Also I do all my back testing based on the closing line. So in theory the games should be played using the closing lines. I send the games out early because those of you adept at reading line moves, or have the ability to shop around, can gain an edge. If you are not confident in your abilities put the games in near game time. Some will go against you and others will move in your favor. It will probably balance out over time.
I hope that helps clarify things. Feel free to email me with any questions.
--
-Stats
Twitter:@statsational
If you can not move off or to a 3, 7 or 10 at 10% juice then do not make the play to buy. Only do this if you can get 10% juice. Most of you probably can not get that. What I am going to do in the future is just put the games with the line most can get. If you have the ability to buy a 1/2 point around those numbers then do so otherwise play them straight up.
Also I do all my back testing based on the closing line. So in theory the games should be played using the closing lines. I send the games out early because those of you adept at reading line moves, or have the ability to shop around, can gain an edge. If you are not confident in your abilities put the games in near game time. Some will go against you and others will move in your favor. It will probably balance out over time.
I hope that helps clarify things. Feel free to email me with any questions.
--
-Stats
Twitter:@statsational
Tuesday, September 4, 2012
Statsational NFL Week 1 Picks
It seems like just yesterday Tom Brady and Wes Welker could not connect
to put the Super Bowl away. Eli Manning, once again, drove the Giants
down the field to win his second Lombardi Trophy. A tough loss for us
to end the season but the season on the whole was quite successful. In
documented games, we were able to go 122-77-7. A great record no doubt
but one that is now meaningless. It is 2012 and that means we must do
it again.
For the newcomers this season this is how it works. I will send the games that the system views as having a 53% chance of winning or better. Those percentages are based on historical trends. The ones that are proven winners over a long period of time get more weight. So what the system is really telling me is historically a team in this spot should win ATS x% of the time. My goal is always to pick around the 60% level on the season. Considering I will have a lot of games to play for the season, 60% is a very difficult number to obtain. Even at 55% we would be very profitable but 60% is the systems goal.
After doing an analysis for last season it looks like we should be buying half points on the following lines. +2.5, +-3, -3.5, +6.5, +-7, -7.5, +9.5, +-10, -10.5. I believe 6 of the pushes would have been wins had we done this. That is 6 additional units which means we would have had to lose 60 other games in which we bought to break even. Considering we lost 77 games in total you can see that buying the half points on these key numbers would have been successful I will be buying these half points for the first time this season. When I post the plays I will put the buys along with the play. I try and post a line that is obtainable by most people. Sometimes I get better than that line and sometimes I get worse. I am sure that is how it works for most of you as well. On occasion there are injuries or some other extenuating circumstances that cause a line to move dramatically after I post the plays. Feel free to check with me before playing it. I will usually post on my twitter @statsational if there are any changes.
Last season was the season I wanted to go live with the system and make some minor tweaks if need be. Several changes were made as the season went. That was accomplished. This season the tweaking is done and its all business full throttle. I am happy many of you were able to be along for the ride last season and are back to do some damage this season.
Bankroll
You should all have a bankroll for the season. Whether it is $500 or $500,000 you should have an amount set aside to play for the season. This eliminates any chance of getting yourself in a financial calamity and allows you to play the games with a bit less stress. You should never be risking more than you can afford on any game. The amount you bet on each game should be a percentage of your overall bankroll. I would suggest 1%-5% per play. Even though my games have a percentage attached I play them flat. The initial thought behind the percentages was to work the Kelly Criterion with the games, giving a percentage to each game to plug in to the Kelly Calculator. The danger is you can win a high percentage of games and still lose do to the top games not winning. The Kelly did however prove to be very good last season despite not hitting on some large percentage plays. If you want to use the kelly I would suggest doing it with a small bankroll or a small piece of your current bankroll and then using the larger piece to play the games straight. When the Kelly works it can multiply your bankroll rather quickly. You may also want to refer back to my email last season on parlays and these games. If we are hitting at 60% the parlays can be very profitable with less at risk each week.
Week 1
Last season we got off to a great start. 6-1 in documented plays. Week 1 is typically a tough week to handicap. We base 95% of our thoughts on what happened last season. Of the 16 games this week 15 are matchups where one team had a better record than the other. In those 15 only 3 do we see the favorite as the team with the lower 2011 record. One of those is Denver who now has Peyton Manning. So we obviously base the lines on the first couple of weeks on our perceptions from the prior season. But when we look at how things play out in the NFL we know that some teams we think are strong contenders right now will be awful and teams we think will be awful will contend. Last season Jacksonville was favored over Tennessee in week 1, Cleveland was almost a TD favorite over Cincinnati, and TB was favored over Detroit. You can go back year after year and see similar trends. If you are in a survivor pool you know how hard it is to stay alive in the first week. What the system tries to do is exploit this. I look back to last years stats and prior matchups and try and find the trends that have proven successful in the first weekend. For example if you just played against playoff teams from the prior season in week 1 you would pick 56% over the last 20 years. That's about 200 games. Not bad at all. It shows how the lines are always skewed toward the teams that were good the prior season.
Week 1 Picks
1. Dallas +4...................64%
2. Washington +9..........58%
3. Denver -1...................58%
4. Arizona +3.5..............57% (Buy .5)
5. Cincinnati +6..............57%
6. Kansas City +3.5........55% (Buy .5)
7. Indianapolis +10........55% (Buy.5)
8. NY Jets -2.5..............55% (Buy .5)
9. St. Louis +8.5..............55%
10. Tampa Bay +3.........55% (Buy .5)
11. Minnesota -3............54% (Buy .5)
12. Philadelphia -8.........53%
13. Tennessee +6..........53%
14. San Diego -1...........53%
If you can not find 3.5 on the Minn game then take it at -4 but do not buy the half point down. If you can only find +2.5 on KC then buy up to 3.
As always I am available via email or twitter to answer questions. I enjoy getting feedback from you guys. Lets start the season off right.Forums
I posted plays last season, initially on Covers, and later in SBR http://forum.sbrforum.com/sports-promotions-links/1305837-statsationals-nfl-trend-based-system-picks-p7.html. I will not log into Covers because of the virus they put on my PC, trying to destroy my system. At SBR I was placed in the Sportsbook and Promotions forums. I finished the season there. I was limited in what I could do as far as accessing pages on the site. The reason being someone mentioned my emails and I responded (its all in the thread) and that was against the rules. I then logged in with an old name I had to be able to have full access to the site and because of that they banned me from posting all together. So there will be no posting on Covers or SBR this season. Someone did offer to post the plays in the SBR forum for me. So you may be able to find that but know I can not reply to anyone there. I may look to post elsewhere but honestly it is a lot of work.
If you do not want to receive emails from me anymore please email me under the subject cancel and I will remove you from the list.BOL
For the newcomers this season this is how it works. I will send the games that the system views as having a 53% chance of winning or better. Those percentages are based on historical trends. The ones that are proven winners over a long period of time get more weight. So what the system is really telling me is historically a team in this spot should win ATS x% of the time. My goal is always to pick around the 60% level on the season. Considering I will have a lot of games to play for the season, 60% is a very difficult number to obtain. Even at 55% we would be very profitable but 60% is the systems goal.
After doing an analysis for last season it looks like we should be buying half points on the following lines. +2.5, +-3, -3.5, +6.5, +-7, -7.5, +9.5, +-10, -10.5. I believe 6 of the pushes would have been wins had we done this. That is 6 additional units which means we would have had to lose 60 other games in which we bought to break even. Considering we lost 77 games in total you can see that buying the half points on these key numbers would have been successful I will be buying these half points for the first time this season. When I post the plays I will put the buys along with the play. I try and post a line that is obtainable by most people. Sometimes I get better than that line and sometimes I get worse. I am sure that is how it works for most of you as well. On occasion there are injuries or some other extenuating circumstances that cause a line to move dramatically after I post the plays. Feel free to check with me before playing it. I will usually post on my twitter @statsational if there are any changes.
Last season was the season I wanted to go live with the system and make some minor tweaks if need be. Several changes were made as the season went. That was accomplished. This season the tweaking is done and its all business full throttle. I am happy many of you were able to be along for the ride last season and are back to do some damage this season.
Bankroll
You should all have a bankroll for the season. Whether it is $500 or $500,000 you should have an amount set aside to play for the season. This eliminates any chance of getting yourself in a financial calamity and allows you to play the games with a bit less stress. You should never be risking more than you can afford on any game. The amount you bet on each game should be a percentage of your overall bankroll. I would suggest 1%-5% per play. Even though my games have a percentage attached I play them flat. The initial thought behind the percentages was to work the Kelly Criterion with the games, giving a percentage to each game to plug in to the Kelly Calculator. The danger is you can win a high percentage of games and still lose do to the top games not winning. The Kelly did however prove to be very good last season despite not hitting on some large percentage plays. If you want to use the kelly I would suggest doing it with a small bankroll or a small piece of your current bankroll and then using the larger piece to play the games straight. When the Kelly works it can multiply your bankroll rather quickly. You may also want to refer back to my email last season on parlays and these games. If we are hitting at 60% the parlays can be very profitable with less at risk each week.
Week 1
Last season we got off to a great start. 6-1 in documented plays. Week 1 is typically a tough week to handicap. We base 95% of our thoughts on what happened last season. Of the 16 games this week 15 are matchups where one team had a better record than the other. In those 15 only 3 do we see the favorite as the team with the lower 2011 record. One of those is Denver who now has Peyton Manning. So we obviously base the lines on the first couple of weeks on our perceptions from the prior season. But when we look at how things play out in the NFL we know that some teams we think are strong contenders right now will be awful and teams we think will be awful will contend. Last season Jacksonville was favored over Tennessee in week 1, Cleveland was almost a TD favorite over Cincinnati, and TB was favored over Detroit. You can go back year after year and see similar trends. If you are in a survivor pool you know how hard it is to stay alive in the first week. What the system tries to do is exploit this. I look back to last years stats and prior matchups and try and find the trends that have proven successful in the first weekend. For example if you just played against playoff teams from the prior season in week 1 you would pick 56% over the last 20 years. That's about 200 games. Not bad at all. It shows how the lines are always skewed toward the teams that were good the prior season.
Week 1 Picks
1. Dallas +4...................64%
2. Washington +9..........58%
3. Denver -1...................58%
4. Arizona +3.5..............57% (Buy .5)
5. Cincinnati +6..............57%
6. Kansas City +3.5........55% (Buy .5)
7. Indianapolis +10........55% (Buy.5)
8. NY Jets -2.5..............55% (Buy .5)
9. St. Louis +8.5..............55%
10. Tampa Bay +3.........55% (Buy .5)
11. Minnesota -3............54% (Buy .5)
12. Philadelphia -8.........53%
13. Tennessee +6..........53%
14. San Diego -1...........53%
If you can not find 3.5 on the Minn game then take it at -4 but do not buy the half point down. If you can only find +2.5 on KC then buy up to 3.
As always I am available via email or twitter to answer questions. I enjoy getting feedback from you guys. Lets start the season off right.Forums
I posted plays last season, initially on Covers, and later in SBR http://forum.sbrforum.com/sports-promotions-links/1305837-statsationals-nfl-trend-based-system-picks-p7.html. I will not log into Covers because of the virus they put on my PC, trying to destroy my system. At SBR I was placed in the Sportsbook and Promotions forums. I finished the season there. I was limited in what I could do as far as accessing pages on the site. The reason being someone mentioned my emails and I responded (its all in the thread) and that was against the rules. I then logged in with an old name I had to be able to have full access to the site and because of that they banned me from posting all together. So there will be no posting on Covers or SBR this season. Someone did offer to post the plays in the SBR forum for me. So you may be able to find that but know I can not reply to anyone there. I may look to post elsewhere but honestly it is a lot of work.
If you do not want to receive emails from me anymore please email me under the subject cancel and I will remove you from the list.BOL
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)