Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Statsational Week 8 Power Rankings

There are no AFC divisions ranked ahead of an NFC division.  The NFC top to bottom is a much stronger conference right now.  The weakest teams in the league are in the AFC.  The Saints are currently the weakest NFC team and they would be a favorite over a lot of teams in the AFC on a neutral field.

A change at the top this week and it is Denver.  Denver moves into the number 1 spot despite just a 4-3 record.  Denver has rated high all season in our rankings and after handling the Saints easily they reach the top spot for the first time.  While Denver played a great game against the Saints, a lot of the move was based upon who they played this year and how they also fared this week.  Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Oakland and New England all had easy wins this week which moved them up the rankings.  In doing so Denver's performances in their games with those teams looks even stronger.  Denver is my 3rd ranked defense and number 2 offense.  At Cincinnati is one of the toughest games they have remaining which tells you how weak their upcoming schedule is. 

New England finds it way into the top 5 after several weeks on the outside.  The Pats went to London and man handled the Rams 45-7.  New England is ranked number 1 in offense but just 22 in defense.  They are however tough to run on ranked 5th.  A lot of that has to do with teams passing against them to keep up with their offense and as such the pass defense is ranked dead last. 

The Giants move up to 5 after winning on the road in Dallas.  It was not easy and it took 6 turnovers by Dallas to do it but they got the victory.  The Giants were not able to move the ball well, for a second time, against Dallas.  This has dropped them to 5th in passing rankings and 10th in rushing.  They still remain 3rd overall.  The defense is ranked just 18th now.

Game of the Week
Pittsburgh @ NY Giants -3
Pittsburgh ranks 9 overall and is the top ranked team in the AFC North.  The Giants are 5th overall and tops in the NFC East.  Pittsburgh has the number 4 ranked defense.  They are the toughest team in football to throw on.  The Giants are the 5th best passing team.  It is a battle of strengths.  The Steelers can throw it also ranked 8th and the Giants do struggle stopping the pass ranked 27.

Worst game of the Week
Kansas City @ San Diego -8
San Diego ranks 22 while Kansas City is ranked 31 ahead of only Jacksonville.  San Diego has been good on defense ranked 9th overall.  The Kansas City offense ranks just 31.  San Diego is 8th in stopping the run which is the one thing Kansas City does well ranked 5th in offensive rushing.

Biggest Mismatch of the Week
Buffalo @ Houston -10
Houston is the 3rd ranked team overall with the 6th ranked defense and 4th ranked offense.  Buffalo has the worst defense in the league.  Buffalo struggles stopping the run giving up 58 more yards than their opponents average while the Texans rush it 22 yards more than opponents give up. 


Rank Teams Power Rating
1 Denver 30.51
2 San Francisco 29.80
3 Houston 28.43
4 New England 27.32
5 NY Giants 26.40
6 Atlanta 25.82
7 Chicago 25.34
8 Dallas 24.66
9 Pittsburgh 24.45
10 Green Bay 24.18
11 Detroit 23.50
12 Seattle 23.46
13 Miami 21.21
14 Baltimore 21.18
15 Washington 21.10
16 Tampa Bay 20.98
17 NY Jets 20.96
18 Philadelphia 20.93
19 Carolina 20.47
20 Minnesota 20.26
21 Arizona 20.04
22 San Diego 19.86
23 St. Louis 19.00
24 Oakland 18.34
25 Cincinnati 17.66
26 New Orleans 17.20
27 Indianapolis 16.60
28 Cleveland 15.70
29 Tennessee 14.53
30 Buffalo 13.91
31 Kansas City 13.89
32 Jacksonville 12.90


NFC East 23.28 W L
NY Giants 26.40 6 2
Dallas 24.66 3 4
Washington 21.10 3 5
Philadelphia 20.93 3 4




NFC North 23.32 W L
Chicago 25.34 6 1
Green Bay 24.18 5 3
Detroit 23.50 3 4
Minnesota 20.26 5 3




NFC South 21.12 W L
Atlanta 25.82 7 0
Tampa Bay 20.98 3 4
Carolina 20.47 1 6
New Orleans 17.20 2 5




NFC West 23.07 W L
San Francisco 29.80 6 2
Seattle 23.46 4 4
Arizona 20.04 4 4
St. Louis 19.00 3 5




AFC East 20.85 W L
New England 27.32 5 3
Miami 21.21 4 3
NY Jets 20.96 3 5
Buffalo 13.91 3 4




AFC North 19.75 W L
Pittsburgh 24.45 4 3
Baltimore 21.18 5 2
Cincinnati 17.66 3 4
Cleveland 15.70 2 6




AFC South 18.11 W L
Houston 28.43 6 1
Indianapolis 16.60 4 3
Tennessee 14.53 3 5
Jacksonville 12.90 1 6




AFC West 20.65 W L
Denver 30.51 4 3
San Diego 19.86 3 4
Oakland 18.34 3 4
Kansas City 13.89 1 6


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Thursday, October 25, 2012

Statsational Week 7 Defensive and Offensive Rankings

If you want to see how each team stacks up on offense and defense here are the rankings from Statsational.  The rating shows what each team would score or give up against an average team in the league.

 
Rank Teams Offense Rating
1 New England 27.08
2 NY Giants 26.53
3 Denver 26.10
4 Green Bay 25.76
5 Washington 25.57
6 New Orleans 24.81
7 Detroit 24.54
8 Houston 24.51
9 Chicago 22.93
10 San Francisco 22.64
11 Atlanta 22.49
12 Baltimore 22.17
13 Dallas 21.52
14 Buffalo 21.29
15 NY Jets 20.46
16 Indianapolis 20.26
17 Minnesota 20.24
18 Miami 20.16
19 Pittsburgh 20.14
20 Philadelphia 20.12
21 St. Louis 20.09
22 Cincinnati 20.09
23 Oakland 19.86
24 Tampa Bay 19.75
25 Tennessee 19.43
26 Carolina 18.45
27 San Diego 18.38
28 Seattle 18.36
29 Cleveland 17.71
30 Arizona 17.63
31 Kansas City 16.48
32 Jacksonville 14.61


Rank Teams Defense Rating
1 San Francisco 13.92
2 Seattle 16.06
3 Chicago 16.49
4 Arizona 17.65
5 Houston 17.80
6 Denver 18.50
7 Pittsburgh 18.65
8 Dallas 18.94
9 Philadelphia 19.37
10 St. Louis 19.39
11 Atlanta 19.56
12 Minnesota 19.73
13 San Diego 19.99
14 Green Bay 20.27
15 NY Jets 20.46
16 Miami 20.56
17 NY Giants 20.80
18 Carolina 21.02
19 Tampa Bay 21.34
20 Detroit 21.65
21 Baltimore 22.29
22 Kansas City 23.22
23 New England 23.50
24 Cleveland 23.99
25 Indianapolis 24.43
26 Cincinnati 24.43
27 Washington 24.59
28 Oakland 24.67
29 Jacksonville 24.71
30 Tennessee 26.46
31 New Orleans 28.00
32 Buffalo 29.18

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Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Statsational Week 8 Rushing and Passing Projections

Top Rushing Teams
San Francisco, Washington, Kansas City, Philadelphia, Chicago

Bottom Rushing Teams
Cleveland, Pittsburgh, NY Jets, Arizona, Carolina

Top Passing Teams
Pittsburgh, Denver, Green Bay, Indianapolis, Dallas

Bottom Passing Teams
Arizona, Seattle, Jacksonville, San Francisco, Washington






Team  Expected Rushing Total  Expected Passing Total Total Yards

Tampa Bay                                            88                                         225                            313
Minnesota                                            84                                         274                            358
New England                                          119                                         282                            401
St. Louis                                            92                                         271                            363
Indianapolis                                          108                                         296                            404
Tennessee                                          124                                         218                            343
Jacksonville                                            86                                         151                            237
Green Bay                                          127                                         297                            425
San Diego                                          114                                         255                            369
Cleveland                                            35                                         261                            296
Atlanta                                            93                                         240                            333
Philadelphia                                          147                                         248                            394
Seattle                                          125                                         145                            270
Detroit                                            79                                         280                            359
Miami                                          137                                         193                            330
NY Jets                                            74                                         239                            313
Carolina                                            78                                         203                            282
Chicago                                          142                                         210                            352
Washington                                          164                                         160                            324
Pittsburgh                                            66                                         362                            428
Oakland                                            97                                         251                            348
Kansas City                                          151                                         207                            358
NY Giants                                          111                                         242                            353
Dallas                                          109                                         285                            394
New Orleans                                            88                                         285                            373
Denver                                          140                                         355                            495
San Francisco                                          171                                         167                            338
Arizona                                            77                                         139                            216



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Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Statsational Week 7 Power Rankings


After week 7 we really have no clear favorite to win the Super Bowl and really that is the way the NFL likes it.  As we have seen in the recent past being the best team now does not mean you will be the best team in January.

This week we still have San Francisco as the top ranked team on the list.  The Niners have played the 5th most difficult schedule and are now 5-2.  There are certainly some who argue, and I might be one of them, that the Niners did not look like the best team when they were blown out at home by the Giants. That loss, however, makes a bigger impression on humans than it does on the computers.  The fact remains the Niners are the top defense by a large margin and are a top ten offense.  Mainly because they can run the ball better than every team but Washington, who get a lot of yards from their QB.

Just 3 AFC teams find the top 10.  Denver, Houston, and New England.  There probably wont be too much of an argument that these are the 3 best AFC teams but their ranks ay be arguable.  Denver is 2nd overall and 1st in the AFC.  A little over a point behind and in 3rd overall is Houston with New England 7th.  Denver ranks 3rd in offense while ranking 6th in defense.  They have played the 8th overall toughest schedule and are the 3rd most prolific passing team.

The biggest surprise on the downside is probably Baltimore.  Baltimore has played a relatively easy schedule so far (19th) and while having a winning record they have not performed well.  Baltimore is the 12th best offense and 21st ranked defense.  Their inability to stop the run (25th) is really hurting this defense although the passing defense (21st) is not much better.

The best matchup this weekend is the NFC East battle between Dallas and New York.  The Giants come in at 6th overall and 1st in the NFC East.  Dallas is 9th overall and 2nd in the NFC East.  Dallas' win over the Giants in week 1 is helping keep them in the top 10 but they will need a repeat performance to stay up there.  The Cowboys strength has been passing defense (4th) and the strength of the Giants is their ability to pass it (7th)

Byes
Baltimore, Buffalo, Houston, Cincinnati


Rank Teams Power Rating
1 San Francisco 29.81
2 Denver 28.90
3 Houston 27.79
4 Chicago 27.73
5 Green Bay 27.01
6 NY Giants 26.81
7 New England 25.10
8 Detroit 24.68
9 Dallas 24.38
10 Atlanta 24.23
11 Seattle 23.81
12 Pittsburgh 23.29
13 Washington 22.49
14 Philadelphia 22.05
15 St. Louis 21.78
16 Minnesota 21.59
17 NY Jets 21.09
18 Arizona 21.06
19 Baltimore 20.96
20 Miami 20.90
21 San Diego 19.69
22 Tampa Bay 19.21
23 Carolina 18.23
24 New Orleans 18.10
25 Cincinnati 17.17
26 Indianapolis 16.63
27 Oakland 16.49
28 Cleveland 15.23
29 Kansas City 14.56
30 Tennessee 14.49
31 Buffalo 13.63
32 Jacksonville 11.20


NFC East 23.93 W L
NY Giants 26.81 5 2
Dallas 24.38 3 3
Washington 22.49 3 4
Philadelphia 22.05 3 3




NFC North 25.25 W L
Chicago 27.73 5 1
Green Bay 27.01 4 3
Detroit 24.68 2 4
Minnesota 21.59 5 2




NFC South 19.94 W L
Atlanta 24.23 6 0
Tampa Bay 19.21 2 4
Carolina 18.23 1 5
New Orleans 18.10 2 4




NFC West 24.12 W L
San Francisco 29.81 5 2
Seattle 23.81 4 3
St. Louis 21.78 3 4
Arizona 21.06 4 3




AFC East 20.18 W L
New England 25.10 4 3
NY Jets 21.09 3 4
Miami 20.90 3 3
Buffalo 13.63 3 4




AFC North 19.16 W L
Pittsburgh 23.29 3 3
Baltimore 20.96 5 2
Cincinnati 17.17 3 4
Cleveland 15.23 1 6




AFC South 17.53 W L
Houston 27.79 6 1
Indianapolis 16.63 3 3
Tennessee 14.49 3 4
Jacksonville 11.20 1 5




AFC West 19.91 W L
Denver 28.90 3 3
San Diego 19.69 3 3
Oakland 16.49 2 4
Kansas City 14.56 1 5



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