Yesterday I posted the
power rankings from the end of the regular season last year.
From there I like to get started with my analysis on who I expect to be
better than the consensus and who I expect to be worse. The rankings
noted below are my own and may differ from the NFL rankings. Each day I
will analyze 5 teams.
Arizona Cardinals Total 5.5 2012 Record 5-11
The Cards had the toughest schedule in football last season. Having to
play in, what is now, one of the toughest divisions in football took its
toll. With just 5 wins Arizona was better than just the Lions and
Eagles in the NFC. Arizona had no quarterback to get the ball to Larry
Fitzgerald last year. They ranked 28th in passing offense and 30th in
overall offense. This season they should get an uptick in passing with
veteran Carson Palmer now throwing it. The defense was ok, 14th
overall. Looking at the
schedule
there won't be too many pushover games despite playing a last place
schedule. Detroit and Philadelphia figure to improve, the NFC South is
solid. Their best shot at a win comes against Jacksonville in week 11.
They are going to have to get 5 more wins some place in order to get
the over here. Leaning under.
Atlanta Falcons Total 10 2012 Record 13-3
The Falcons boasted the best record in the NFC last season. Many
thought the record was better than it should have been. The Falcons
squeaked by in many games last year against much weaker opponents. The
won games against Carolina, Oakland, Arizona and Tampa that they not
only could have lost but probably should have lost. Add in a week 2 win
over Denver who had Peyton Manning still trying to figure out the
offense and his teammates. Manning had 4 early turnovers and still
almost won the game late. Last year Atlanta played the 13th toughest
schedule. This year they will get a first place
schedule
which means playing at San Francisco and Green Bay and home for Seattle
and Washington. They play the AFC East which means New England but
they do catch a break with the Jets. I expect the division to be much
more competitive with the Saints focused on football and Carolina and
Tampa improving with great young talent. With that said 10 looks to be a
number we can not get much value with. Better options elsewhere.
Baltimore Ravens Total 8.5 2012 Record 10-6
Make no mistake this is Joe Flacco and Ray Rices team. The Ravens are
offense first now ranking 10th last season. The Super Bowl champs come
into this season looking a bit different then
they did when they were hoisting the Lombardi Trophy back in February.
Losses like Anquan Boldin, Ray Lewis and Ed Reed will impact this team
for sure but Ozzie Newsome might be the best GM in the game today.
Coupled with a very good head coach I do not expect the Ravens to live
off of last seasons successes. The Ravens ranked 11th overall at the
end of the regular season. The team got hot once they fired Cam
Cameron. I gave some statistics to that case in my
Super Bowl preview selection last year. A look at the Raven
schedule
shows that the road won't be easy but they need to be just 1 game worse
than last season. They are heavy favorites against the Jets and
Cleveland at home. They need to find 7 more wins. If they can go 5-3
at home they will need to go 4-4 on the road. The toughest road game
will be week 1 in a rematch from last seasons Divisional game with the
Broncos. The remaining 7 games are all games they can win. They will
need 4 of those if they get just 5 at home. I like Baltimore to find a
way and go over the 8.5.
Buffalo Bills Total 6.5 2012 Record 6-10
The Bills were a sexy over pick last season and disappointed many. This
year the number to beat is one more win then last season. Buffalo
played a weak schedule in 2012 ranking 29th. The defense was awful and
finished 30th overall. Can EJ Manuel be the Russell Wilson of 2013.
That is the big question. But the even bigger question is can this
defense stop their opponents enough for it to matter. The Seahawks were
able to help Wilson along by playing great defense. Buffalo can not
duplicate that. A look at their
schedule
shows they do have some games they should win. Home games against the
Jets, Kansas City and Miami are all very winnable. If they sneak in
another win at home that means a 3-5 road schedule will get the over.
They play at Jacksonville, The Jets and Cleveland. Those would be the
games they have the best shot in. 7 wins is certainly possible and I
would lean that way but not enough to make a strong play on them.
Carolina Panthers Total 7 2012 Record 7-9
Year 3 of the Cam Newton era begins for the Carolina Panthers. The
2011 rookie sensation fizzled late in 2011 and early in 2012 before
coming on strong again in the second half. The Panthers were ranked
14th overall last season, just ahead of Minnesota and Dallas. This team
played solid defense ranking 7th overall. I love teams who are solid
against the pass and they were. 6th overall with teams like Denver and
San Francisco ahead of them. The
schedule
looks pretty difficult. As stated earlier the NFC South has no
pushover games. They will be playing the AFC East which will give them a
couple of easy games. They look to win the Ram, Jet and Bucs game at
home and on the road they get Arizona and Buffalo. I think this is a
team that will make a push for a playoff spot. You get a low number
here because of the schedule and division. Can they be 1 game better
than last year? I think so. I like Over 7 with Carolina.
Chicago Bears Total 8.5 2012 Record 10-6
No team was higher ranked and did not make the playoffs then the Chicago
Bears. They finished 6th overall led by the number 4 defense. The
Bears were close to making the playoffs had Green Bay beat Minnesota in
the final week of the season. A game that went down to the wire.
Urlacher is now gone and filling that void of a leader will be tougher
to do then filling in his on field abilities as he was in decline the
last few years. Lovie Smith and his defensive minded coaching departs
and in comes Marc Trestman. Trestman has been known for taking QB's to
the next level. Under his tutelage Bernie Kosar, Scott Mitchell, Steve
Young, Jake Plummer and Rich Gannon all had some of their best seasons
ever. There is no reason his West Coast system could not benefit Jay
Cutler. The talent has always been there now it is time to keep him
upright and this system should do that. Last season the Bears were 20th
in offense and 29th in passing. There will be a dramatic increase in
both. The defense should remain solid. The
schedule
will not be easy. The division is full of potential playoff teams.
Out of the division the only easy game is Cleveland and maybe St. Louis
but they are on the road. If you like the Over you have to think they
are just better than the rest of the division and they just might be. I
am going Over the 8.5.
Cincinnati Bengals Total 8.5 2012 Record 10-6
The Bengals finished the regular season ranked 10th and made the
playoffs. They were one slightly over thrown ball away from beating
Houston in Houston and advancing but it was not meant to be. The
Bengals strength was its defense finishing 9th overall. The defensive
line was good and should be even better this season. Atkins and
Johsnon are a formidable pass rush combination and getting better. AJ
Green is a superstar but Andy Dalton was very inconsistent last season.
They look to improve offensively as Mohamed Sanu will become a bigger
factor for this team. But for all of their talent to show its riches
Andy Dalton will have to be better than last season. If Dalton brings
the QB rating up into the mid 90's this team could be very tough to
beat. The
schedule is
not one of the toughest we have seen. There are a number of winnable
games. They need to win 6 home games to make the over look really good
and 5 keeps you in the running. The toughest games will be Baltimore,
New England, Green Bay, Baltimore. If they can split those I think the
over hits. I will take Over 8.5 with the Bengals.
Cleveland Browns Total 6 2012 Record 5-11
The Browns were disappointing yet again last season. They may have
found the RB of the future in Trent Richardson but the QB of the future
is still up in the air. You do not win in this league without a QB and
the Browns need one to emerge. Brandon Weeden will need to become that
guy this year. Norv Turner is now the offensive coordinator and he has
had great success with QB's in the past. Especially as a coordinator.
Weeden showed flashes throwing for 300 yards 3 times last year. The TD
to INT needs to improve from 14 and 17 however. The
schedule
is not easy. The Browns have not been very good on the road and it is
tough to see them winning more than 1 or 2 games on the road this
season. It will take more than that to get this number over 6. Lean
under 6.
Denver Broncos Total 11.5 2012 Record 13-3
As long as we are just looking at the regular season then the Broncos
have one of the best QB's of all time. Manning took a little time to
settle in last year but when he did the Broncos became a force to
contend with. Gamblers cashed in big on Denver as well as it was easy
money backing the Broncos after the first few weeks winning 9 of 11 down
the stretch ATS. Now that Manning is healthy and familiar there is no
reason to expect the Broncos to come out of the box like they did last
season. Wes Welker should be a great addition for the Broncos. Manning
loves to have a slot WR he can rely on and Welker is as good as it
gets. One big issue they do have is Von Miller is suspended for the
first 6 games due to substance abuse violations. The Broncos
schedule opens
tough with Baltimore and the Giants but after that there are a slew of
winnable games. Since 2003 Manning has failed to win 12 games just
once. With a defense that ranked 3rd last season Manning should be able
to get that 12 number again easily. Broncos over the 11.5.
Dallas Cowboys Total 8.5 2012 Record 8-8
When are the expectations not high in Dallas? The Cowboys had destiny
in their own hands last season and let it slip away in the last week.
Tony Romo, once again, threw the game away, with a pick 6 against the
Redskins and sealed the fate of the Cowboys for 2012. Dallas finished
16th in the power rankings and were only higher ranked than one playoff
team, the Colts. There is a ton of talent on this team. Romo, despite
his clutch mishaps, has a ton of talent. Dez Bryant is one of the top 5
WR in the game today. Witten at TE continues to be a great security
blacket for Romo. RB Demarcus Murray was a beast on short yardage
situations last season. If he stays healthy he will be a TD machine in
the red zone. Monte Kiffin has come in to replace Rob Ryan as defensive
coordiantor. The defense will move from a 3-4 to a 4-3. It will be
interesting to see if Ware and Spencer will be as effective as they were
in the 3-4 system. Kiffin should help the 19th defense in the league
and a healthy Murray will improve on the 31st rushing attack. The
schedule gives
them a chance to start of decently with KC, ST. Louis and San Diego but
if they struggle at all it wont be easier the rest of the way. Dallas
will be in the hunt most of the year as 10 wins will likely win the
division but I am not sure they will be the team to get the 10. No
opinion here on the 8.5.
Detroit Lions Total 7.5 2012 Record 4-12
Detroit
was a team whose record was a lot worse than their performance.
Detroit finished 17th overall which should have been closer to or 8 win
season. Detroit has the premiere WR in the game in Calvin Johnson. He
can put up big numbers anywhere. Stafford, when healthy, is up in the
top 10 QB's in the league. Last season he had 8 300 yard games but the
Lions do throw it a ton. They ranked 5th overall in offense but just
23rd in rushing offense. The offense was carried by the number 1 ranked
passing attack. When you pass like they do it puts pressure on the
defense and it showed. The defense was 26th Overall. This year they
bring in two defensive players in the first two rounds of the draft in
DE Ansah and CB Slay. Both are expected to help this defense out.
Reggie Bush comes in as well to help out on the offensive side of the
ball. He could be very interesting as it gives another dimension to
this offense. But at the end of the day the Lions will need to stop
people to win. The
schedule is
not favorable. When I look at it I am not sure where the 8 wins come
from to get the over. I think the public likes this team to bounce back
and possibly make the playoffs. I think this team improves but not
enough. 6 or 7 wins at most this season. Under 7.5
Green Bay Packers Total 10 2012 Record 11-5
When you have one of the best QB's in the league you will always be a
contender. Aaron Rodgers is relied upon to win games and he is capable
of doing just that. They lose Jennings so Cobb will have to step up and
be the number one WR they feel he can be. Rookie RB Eddie Lacy should
get the bulk of the carries. They finished 5th overall in the power
rankings. The area needed to improve the most was defense ranked 10.
The addition of Dante Jones at DE may help. The Packers get the
division winners
schedule.
Tough road games at San Francisco, Cincinnati, Baltimore, NY Giants,
Dallas. At home they get Washington, Atlanta. From the looks of it
they could be very good at home winning 6 or 7. They will struggle to
be .500 on the road however. Which puts us right around that 10 win
number. I am leaning under but not enough for a play.
Houston Texans Total 10 2012 Record 12-4
This team was everyone's darling the last couple of seasons but my sense
this year is people are down on them. They appeared to be a very weak
12-4 team last year and it showed in the playoffs. They ranked behind
Chicago at 7th overall last year. The defense was 8th while the offense
11th. The offense is usually all about Arian Foster. Houston was a
middle of the pack passing team and relied on Foster to carry the load.
This season Foster comes in with some back issues which can't make
Texans fans feel very good. Ben Tate has proven to be a formidable
backup however averaging 4.3 YPR. First round draft pick DeAndre
Hopkins looks to compliment Andre Johnson in the passing game. The
defense looks to get stronger with the addition of the aging Ed Reed.
Hopkins may be the best second option the Texans have ever had. The
division is still pretty weak. The Texans should be up at the top all
season long. The Texans
schedule
has them at Baltimore and San Francisco. They get Seattle, New England
and Denver at home. Those are the toughest non divisional games they
face. They should win 4 divisional games easily. They need to win 3 of
those 5 tough games and then get 4 more. It wont be easy. I think 10
is right where they will be.
Indianapolis Colts Total 8.5 2012 Record 11-5
No team was luckier to make the playoff than the Colts last season.
Finishing the regular season ranked 23rd puts you in Miami and Cleveland
territory. But so many times the ball bounced the Colts way and they
were able to steal some wins late in games. Bruce Arians did a great
job with this young team as interim coach and now leaves to take over in
Arizona. That loss may be significant. The Colts ranked just 27th in
total defense last year while the offense was just 19th. With all the
excitement over Andrew Luck many fail to realize he threw for a lesser
completion percentage than Mark Sanchez last year, 54.1%. The 18 INT's
also need to come down. The
schedule
has games at San Francisco and Cincinnati. They get Seattle, Denver at
home. I want to fade this team but they have a lot of winnable games
on the schedule. Like the Texans they should win 4 divisional games.
They need a way to win 1 of those 4 toughest games and then win 4 of the
following Oakland, Miami, @San Diego, St. Louis, @Arizona, @Kansas
City. You can make a strong case for the over. I would lean that way
but not going to make a play on it.
Jacksonville Jaguars Total 5 2012 Record 2-14
The Jaguars were the worst team in the league last season. That is
becoming a habit in Jacksonville. Gus Bradley comes in as the new head
coach to try and turn the ship around for the new ownership. It appears
Blaine Gabbert is going to win the job from Chad Henne who actually
showed some signs of promise last season. Gabbert has yet to produce
consistently in the NFL. The
schedule
for last place teams tends to be easier but the Jags will be an
underdog in almost every game they play. They will win 1 maybe 2
division games. Their best shot at winning at home is Kansas City,
Buffalo, San Diego, Arizona. I do not like their chances. Take the
under 5.
Kansas City Chiefs Total 7 2012 Record 2-14
No team gets a bigger improvement over 2012 total in Vegas then does the
Chiefs. The number is 5 games over their total from a year ago. New
Head Coach Andy Reid probably has something to do with that. Another
key addition is at QB with Alex Smith taking over the reins. Smith
emerged as a solid QB under the tutelage of Jim Harbaugh the last 2
seasons but fell out of favor after San Francisco got a taste of how
electric Colin Kaepernick can be. The running game is sold with Jamaal
Charles leading the way. Expect Charles to have a big year under Andy
Reid who likes to throw the ball to his backs. The Chiefs were a tough
team to watch last season. They were in so many games yet had so many
turnovers cost them. They had 37 turnovers in all. They lost 5 games
by less than 10 points. The Chiefs were dismal in my rankings last
season finishing 31st overall. They should be much improved from that
but getting to 8 wins may be difficult. The
schedule
is not the toughest. They get an easy opponent out of the box in
Jacksonville but it is on the road. They only games they are in against
much better talent is Houston at home and the two Denver games. With
the new coach and QB this team holds the ball better than it did last
season and finds a way to win more than 7. Over the 7.
Miami Dolphins Total 7.5 2012 Record 7-9
The Dolphins got off to a nice start, 4-3, in 2012 but then went 3-6 to
close it out. Tough losses to the Jets, Arizona and Indianapolis really
kept this team from a possible playoff birth. But they were not really
deserving. Finishing 22 overall, just ahead of the Colts, in the
rankings. Miami was doing it mostly on defense ranking 11th overall the
offense however ranked 29. Ryan Tannehill looked good at times and
will now have Mike Wallace to throw to. This should boost the 26th
ranked passing offense a bit. Reggie Bush had a nice season with almost
1300 all purpose yards. Bush is now running in Detroit so Miami will
look to unproven backs to pick up the slack. The
schedule
has the Dolphins on the road 3 of the first 4. They must beat
Cleveland or they could be facing 0-5 with Indy, Atlanta, New Orleans
and Baltimore as the first 5 games. That start looks too daunting. I
like the under 7.5 on Miami.
Minnesota Vikings Total 7.5 2012 Record 10-6
Interesting total as the oddsmakers anticpate a big drop off for the
Vikings who made the playoffs last season. Of course Minnesota has the
premier RB in the game in Adrian Peterson. AP figures to have another
monster season. The question mark will be in the passing game. Ponder
was efficient last year at 62.1% but it was mostly short passing as he
threw for just 2935 yards. A good 20/12 TD/INT ratio though showed
Ponder will take care of the football. Minnesota was middle of the pack
last year ranking 15th. That would be an 8-8 record, right where the
experts have them this season. The question is do they outplay last
season or are they about the same. Greg Jennings comes in from GB to
help the 31st ranked passing offense. Defensively Minnesota ranked
16th. Minnesota loses a home game this year because they are playing in
London as the home team against Pittsburgh. The
schedule
is brutal. The weakest team they face looks to be Philadelphia, whom
they get at home. 7.5 will be close to where they are. I would lean to
the under slightly as I think the rest of the division is better.
New England Patriots Total 11 2012 Record 12-4
The class of the AFC East by far the Patriots need to duplicate last
season to cover the 11 win total. Tom Brady loses his favorite target
We Welker but Danny Amendola takes Welkers place and is probably a
better talent. The question is always health with Amendola. If healthy
he could be a great target for Brady to go to. Another lost target is
Aaron Hernandez who is sitting in jail awaiting trial for murder. The
other great TE Rob Gronkowski is battling health issues as he has had
numerous surgeries in his short career. If healthy he is a force. The
Patriot defense has been overlooked in recent years as the unit has
given up big chunks of yardage. They should improve from the 21 ranking
a year ago. The other night the defense was able to hold Detroit to 16
points in the first half despite playing with their backs on the end
zone the whole half as the offense had 4 turnovers. The
schedule is
manageable The division looks to be weak so figure on 5 wins there. 7
more gets the over. It won't be easy but consider Brady has won at
least 11 games in 8 of 11 season. The Patriots over the 11.
New Orleans Saints Total 9 2012 Record 7-9
The whole bounty situation is a thing of the past and now the Saints are
back to normal. Sean Payton will be back calling plays, just the way
Drew Brees likes it. This team got off to an 0-4 start and just could
not get enough momentum together to make a playoff run last year. The
offense was great as usual finsihing 2nd but the defense stopped nobody
finishing dead last. The defense is moving to a 3-4 scheme to try and
improve. It can't get much worse. The
schedule
is tough but not brutal. Two tough divisional games to open and then
two winnable games with Arizona and Miami at home. After that it gets a
bit tougher but they still get Buffalo and the Jets. Winning 10 to get
this over will be a lot to ask for. I do not like this defense and
that could be what keeps this team from making the playoffs again. I
would lean under the 9 but it should be close.
New York Giants Total 9 2012 Record 9-7
The Giants missed the playoffs last year for the 2nd time in the last 3
seasons. But the year they did make it they won it all. Eli Manning
has shown a knack for playing big in the big game, especially in the 2
minute drill. But the regular seasons for the Giants have never been
great. Even in their 2 Super Bowl seasons they were lucky just to get
into the playoffs. This year the oddsmakers have the Giants total right
where it was a season ago. They are favored in the NFC East but the
team that wins that division is generally right around 10 wins. So
getting to 10 is never easy. The Giants have averaged 9.625 wins in the
Manning era and finished under 9 just twice winning 8 in '06 and '09.
Last season the Giants finished 9th overall in the rankings ahead of
Washington who won the division. The Giants were certainly good enough
offensively but the defense lagged behind ranked just 17th. When the
Giants win it is because they are getting a pass rush. In 2012 they
missed Pierre-Paul for 12 weeks. If he is healthy this year it could
give a boost to that mediocre defense. The
schedule outside of the division is light having to play the weak AFC West. Lean over 9.
New York Jets Total 6.5 2012 Record 6-10
The Jets are as close to first place today as they will be the rest of
the season. The comedy continues as fans of every team in the AFC East
enjoy watching Rex Ryan do his thing each week. This time Rex decided
to play Mark Sanchez late in the 4th quarter against the Giants with the
2nd and 3rd string unit. Sanchez was being hit hard on every snap
until he finally injured his shoulder. Seeing as Geno Smith looked
awful and not ready to start an NFL game it is unclear what Rex was
thinking. But generally that is how it goes in Jet camp. Only Rex
knows what he is thinking. The Jets defense should be improved
however. Despite losing Revis there is some talent on the defensive
side of the ball. The problem is they will not be able to score without
a QB. The offense was 28th last season and count on that being about
their number this year. The
schedule
has very few cupcakes on it. The Jets will be a dog in all but 3
games. I have a hard time finding 7 wins. Take the Jets under the 6.5.
Oakland Raiders Total 5.5 2012 Record 4-12
In order for the Raiders to beat the number they will have to get
production from their QB position. The question is who will that QB
be. Terrel Pryor has looked good in the preseason while Matt Flynn has
not. It looked like it was Flynn's job to lose going into camp and he
very well may have done that. Last season Carson Palmer played well for
the Raiders. They ranked 9th in passing. The problem on offense is
keeping McFadden healthy. Run DMC has not played more than 13 games in
any season. No reason to think this season will be different. The
defense was one of the worst in the league ranked 29. I do not see the
improvement on that side of the ball to make a case for this team
improving. The
schedule
shows they may be favored 3 times this year. You need to win those and
3 more to get the over. It will not be this season for the Raiders.
Under the 5.5.
Philadelphia Eagles Total 7 2012 Record 4-12
I am not sure if there is a collective offensive unit that is more
careless with the ball then the Eagles. It seems all of their star
players like to carry the ball low and as a result they were -24 in
turnovers last season. That really was the major reason they had just 4
wins. Vick looks to be the starting QB once again for new Head Coach
Chip Kelly. It will be interesting to see how Kelly runs his offense
and if it is similar to the up tempo he ran in Oregon. That tempo is
great for the offense but it does weaken the defense. We saw an offense
in San Francisco change its approach at the expense of the defense last
season.
(see my Super Bowl analysis from last season). That defense was strong this one is not. Eagle games could be very high scoring this season. The
schedule
this year is always going to be tough in division. Out of the division
they do get a break with the AFC West. In the NFC they get a tough NFC
Central. This team will be improved this season. 7 looks to be a good
number. Tough call on either side.
Pittsburgh Steelers Total 9 2012 Record 8-8
Well are the Steelers better than they were a year ago? That is the
question to answer when looking at this total. Big Ben is back at the
helm and when healthy we know he can win games for the Steelers. The
question is can he be healthy. The Steelers did what they do in the
offseason which is replace aging players and contracts with younger
cheaper additions. Pittsburgh was 5th in defense last season but the
offense was a dismal 22. They should improve there if Ben plays 16
games but will the defense be as good. The
schedule has
them playing the NFC North which won't be easy but the AFC East, whom
they also play, may give them a couple of wins. They also benefit from a
3rd place finish getting Tennessee and Oakland on the schedule.
Getting to 10 wins will not be easy and if they do it may be good enough
to win this division. I can see this team right at the 9 so I will
pass on the Steelers.
San Diego Chargers Total 7.5 2012 Record 7-9
San Diego was one of the more disappointing teams in 2012 going 7-9 and
missing the playoffs. I think the season was summed up in one play, 4th
and 29 against Baltimore and they let Ray Rice run around for the first
down which led to the tying score and eventual loss. The other shining
moment was the 2nd half collapse on Monday night against the Broncos up
24-0 and lose 35-24. Those were the games that led to the demise of
Norv Turner, perhaps a few years too late. In comes new head coach Mike
McCoy from Denver. This team finished 21 in the rankings last year but
the defense was not bad at 12. Turner was an offensive coach and so is
McCoy. We will see if that change means much. The bottom line is can
Rivers play better than he did last season. Rivers at times looks like
he is giving games away on purpose. Some of his decision making is
really questionable. Gates can no longer be counted on as Rivers
security blanket in the passing game. There is some talent at WR
however with Vincent Brown probably his best option. The
schedule
has SD playing 4 playoff teams at home, a place where they went 3-5
last season. In addition to those 4 teams they get Dallas and The
Giants at home. Their road schedule is much easier. They could repeat
2012 with a better road record than home. It looks like getting to 8 is
about as good as this team will do. I will lean under but not enough
to play it.
San Francisco 49ers Total 11.5 2012 Record 11-4-1
Maybe the most hyped team of the season, which always makes me approach
with caution. The Niners are defending NFC champions. Expectations are
for this team to be better than they were a year ago. That would mean
12 wins and a Super Bowl Championship. The last time the Super Bowl
loser won it all the next season was 1972 when the Dolphins went 17-0.
If you go back to my
Super Bowl analysis
you will see that there was a definite change to the 49ers when
Kaepernick took over from Smith but it wasn't all positive. The 49'ers
defense was mediocre without the more ball control style offense. If
you are expecting a dominant defense, don't. I suspect a move back in
defense from their number 1 ranking while the offense should improve
from 9. The two should cancel each other out. The question here is
whether they can be better. The
schedule
looks favorable. We know about the division, with Seattle being very
good, St Louis improving and a bad Arizona team. They get The AFC
South, which is not strong and the NFC South which is competitive but
the best team in the NFC is probably not coming out of there. So there
is an opportunity to get to 12 wins here. To do it they will need to be
almost perfect at home which means defeating Green Bay, Atlanta, Indy,
Houston and Seattle. That is a tall order but doable. I can not take
the over here but I can't take them under either although that is the
lean.
Saint Louis Rams Total 7.5 2012 Record 7-8-1
St. Louis is improving with one of the best coaches in the game Jeff
Fisher. They will need to be a little better this season to get the
over. The team brought in Jake Long and Jared Cook and rookies Ogletree
and Austin are expected to have major impacts. Bradford is the
question mark. He loses his favorite target in Danny Amendola, although
he was never healthy enough to play a full season. Bradford was a very
respectable 22/13 TD to INT and I expect him to be back in that
ballpark again. The defense finished 13th last season with the offense
21st. I expect the offense to be better this year with the defense
getting a slight uptick as well. That is the good news, the bad is they
have to play Seattle and San Francisco 4 times although they managed to
go 2-1-1 against them last year. The rest of the
schedule
has some winnable games but not many. This team will be right at this
number once again unless Bradford has a monster season. No opinion on
the 7.5.
Seattle Seahawks Total 10.5 2012 Record 11-5
One of the biggest surprises of last season was Russell Wilson and the
Seahawks. We knew the defense was solid and Lynch was a beast but
nobody saw Wilson coming. And when he did the Seahwaks got on a roll.
This season there will be no surprises but Wilson is a winner. This
team finished 3rd in my rankings ahead of San Francisco last season.
The defense was 2 and the offense 7. I think this defense finishes
number 1 this year with the offense staying right where they are. Percy
Harvin does come in to add a weapon to Wilsons arsenal. The
schedule
at home doesn't really matter since the Seahawks are impossible to beat
at home. 7-8 wins should be easy. On the road however it gets
tougher. At Houston, Indianapolis, Atlanta and the Giants. I think
they handle business on the road as well though and cover the 10.5.
Seattle over.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Total 7.5 2012 Record 7-9
As the oddsmakers like to do they will put a number up on Tampa right
where they were a year ago. Tampa played to their ranking finishing
19th overall. Doug Martin broke out last season as one of the top RB's
in the game. But QB Freeman has seen his completion percentage decline
from 66.5% in 2010 to 62.6% in '11 to 54.8% last season. He must be
better than that for him to keep his job and have this team improve.
Tampa was 16th in overall offense with a 22 defensive ranking. They
ranked high against the run, 1st overall, but that may be deceptive
since teams were passing on them so easily, ranked 31. There was not
much reason to try and run it. Tampa's
schedule
on the road is brutal with just the Jets in week 1 to look forward to.
That road schedule scares me. I will take under the 7.5 with Tampa.
Tennessee Titans Total 6.5 2012 Record 6-10
The Titans go as Chris Johnson goes. In 2011 he fell off the face of the earth but he rebounded a bit in 2012. Which CJ will show up in 2013? The offensive line is improved with Andy Levitre and Chance Warmack. That should help Johnson find some holes to run in. Jake Locker needs to improve to get this team into contention. Last seasons 11/11 TD/INT ratio wont hack it. Locker can throw it, now he needs to find a way to do so under control. The offense ranked 23 last season. It may have been worse if not for a shootout with Detroit. The defense was worse ranked 31 overall. Just New Orleans was worse and they do not have the New Orleans fire power on offense. The front 7 is young but does have potential. The secondary is weak however. The
schedule won't be easy. Opener at Pittsburgh followed up by a road game in Houston. Could easily be an 0-2 start. If they do happen to split then they could find themselves on pace for an over because the next 3 opponents are much weaker. It can be done and I would lean slightly over 6.5 but not enough to warrant a play.
Washington Redskins Total 8 2012 Record 10-6
Big jump for the Redskins thanks to RG3 and Alfred Morris. Not much is said about Morris with RG3 the star everyone jumps to but Morris had a big season averaging 4.8 YPC. Overall the team ranked 15, right in the middle of the pack. So they did over achieve a bit. Injuries are a concern with RG3 as he comes off knee surgery. The defense was not great ranked 23rd overall. They could be thrown on ranking 29th against the pass. They have tried to make some improvements there but not enough to make this a top defense. The Redskins won a lot of close games. The ball seemed to bounce their way as well as they were +17 in giveaways. They will need a similar stroke of luck to win the division again. The
schedule will be much more difficult than the last place schedule they faced last season. I will pass on this team but I have a feeling the under might be the play here.
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