Statsationals 5 Ways To Narrow The Field of 64

The NFL may be my bread and butter but there is absolutely nothing in sports that compares to the excitement of the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament.  Everyone from the sharpest of sharps to your grandmother and her hair dresser are putting in a bracket pool entry somewhere.  I do hours upon hours of research this time of year in the hopes of finding some angles worth playing.  Let me share with you some of my thoughts on this upcoming tournament and what you should be looking for in your brackets.

Much of the data I will be referencing in this article I received via Peter Tiernan of Bracket Science.  His site is an invaluable tool for getting information on the tournament teams.

In picking potential final 4 teams and champions I find it much easier to eliminate teams from consideration to narrow down the selections.  Here are some of the criteria I will use

1. Pre Season AP Rankings can predict tournament success

The following comes from a Nate Silver article in the NY Times before the 2011 tournament.

Since the tournament field expanded to 64 teams in 1985, there have been 41 cases in which a school that was unranked to start the season entered the tournament ranked in the A.P. top 10 (excluding a couple of cases where the team was ineligible for tournament play). These schools, as you might expect, were seeded highly: eight were No. 1 seeds and another 17 were seeded No. 2.

Absolutely none of these teams have made the Final Four, however: they are 0-for-41. Instead, they have been the victims of some notorious upsets, like the No. 2-seeded South Carolina Gamecocks losing — by 13 points! — to the No. 15 seed Coppin State in the opening round of the 1997 tournament, and the No. 3 seed Wisconsin Badgers being one of Davidson’s victims in 2008. Three of the No. 1 seeds that fit this description — Michigan in 1985, St. John’s in 1986, and Cincinnati in 2002 — lost in the Round of 32. 

This has held up since then.

2011 Notre Dame (2) lost in 2nd round to Florida

2012 Florida State (3) lost in 2nd round to Cincinnati 

2013 Georgetown (2) lost in 1st round to Florida GC

2013 Miami (2) lost in 3rd round to Marquette

2014 Villanova (1) TBD

2014 Iowa St (3) TBD

2.  3 point shooting

In this day and age of college basketball the three point shot has become extremely important.

Since 2007 no team who has shoots under 30% from behind the arc has won a game in the tournament.

This year no teams qualify

Since 2007 only 3 teams shooting under 33% from 3 have made the elite 8.  If you are not going to shoot the 3 well then you need to defend it well.  In 2012 both Louisville and Ohio State made it to the final 4 with sub 33% 3 point shooting but both defended the 3 as good or better than they shot it.  Louisville gave up 30.3% from 3 and Ohio State 32.5%.

Teams to be leary of 

NC State 30.3%

St. Louis 31.9%

Colorado 32%

Texas 32.4%

Kentucky 32.5%

Tulsa 32.5%

Ohio St 32.6%

Milwaukee 32.7%

St Louis, and Ohio St defend the 3 as well as any team in the country so keep that in mind.  St Louis defends at 28.4% and OSU 29.4%.  Kentucky is not far behind at 31.7% 

The worst net 3 point shooting teams (Off % - Def %) are

Colorado 

Tulsa

Texas

NC ST

Kansas

Syracuse

New Mexico

Tennessee

3. Scoring Margin

Using the PASE (Performance above seed expectations) stat from Bracket Science the number one determinant of being able to outperform your seed expectation is scoring margin. 

111 teams have been a 1-4 seed and come in to the tournament with a 15+ scoring margin.  46 have made the final 4 (41%) and 16 have won it all (14.4%). 

This year that is Wichita St and Louisville.  The problem here is when you look at teams that had a strength of schedule 70 or worse from this group you get 6 teams, none of which made it to an elite 8.  Louisville had an 80 SOS and Wichita St 98.

*Arizona has a 14.9 scoring margin and the number 4 strength of schedule.

Of the 132 teams to get a 1-4 seed and have a scoring margin under 10 just 2 have won a title and 11 gone to the final 4.  

This year

Wisconsin

Michigan

Kansas

Syracuse

Iowa St

4. Coaches Success

Coaches are very important to the success of a team come tournament time.  The great coaches tend to outperform their expectations.

Again from Pete at Bracket Science

Using tourney appearances and Elite Eight trips, I’ve come up with the following taxonomy of coaching types in the tourney:

• Rookies – making their first trip to the tourney
• Novices – 2-5 tourney trips with no Elite Eight runs
• Prodigies – 2-5 tourney trips with at least one Elite Eight run
• Snake-bit – more than five trips with no Elite Eight runs
• Flashes – more than five trips with one Elite Eight run
• Destined – 6-10 trips with more than one Elite Eight run
• Veterans – more than 10 trips with 2-4 Elite Eight runs
• Legends – more than 10 trips with more than four Elite Eight runs

I’m focusing this analysis on one through six seeds, the seeds most likely to advance in the dance. A standard PASE analysis on the eight classes of coaches turned up these results:

 As the chart shows the "snakebit" coaches are ones you will want to stay away from picking to make a deep run.

This years Snake Bit coaches are

Gonzaga

Oregon

UCLA

Arizona St

Creighton

St. Louis

Cincinnati 

Iowa

5. Points Per Game

Playing defense is great but you will need to keep pace with great offenses come tournament time.

68 Teams have scored 73 ppg or less in the tournament and had a 1-4 seed.  9 made the final 4 with no champions.  

This year

Virginia  65.9 ppg

Syracuse 68.2 ppg

San Diego St 70.6 ppg

Florida 70.7 ppg

Arizona squeaks in at 73.1 ppg

Summary

27 Champions since 1985 have been a 1-4 seed with just 2 seeded higher.  So for a potential champion we should eliminate all teams seeded above 4.

From the above we can eliminate the following top 4 seeds from championship contention

Team (corresponding number from above that eliminated them from consideration)

1 Seeds

Virginia (5)

Florida (5)

Wichita St (3)

2 Seeds

Wisconsin (3)

Michigan (3)

Kansas (3)

Villanova (1)

3 Seeds

Syracuse (2,3,5)

Iowa St (1)

Creighton (4)

4 Seeds

UCLA (4)

San Diego St ( 5)

Louisville (3)

So of the 1-4 seeds that leaves us with 

1. Arizona

3. Duke

4. Michigan State

We have eliminated some of the top picks like Louisville and Florida but we still have some public favorites like Arizona and Michigan St left.  Duke may be a team to take in your office pool that will not be heavily picked.  Michigan St and Louisville seem to be very en vogue picks right now.  So if you are looking to zig while they zag you have some options.

In my brackets I would look for a team higher than a 4 to make one of the final four spots.  If you like Arizona, Duke and Michigan St then you have to look to the South region for that long shot to come in.  We eliminated the top 4 seeds so lets try and find a long shot.

We eliminated Ohio St, New Mexico and Colorado all based on 3 point shooting.

Of the top 8 seeds that leaves VCU at the 5 seed.  This is a team with a coach who knows how to win in the tournament.  Shaka Smart has exceeded his seed expectation by 1.2 games per tournament thanks in large part to his final four run in 2011 as an 11 seed.  VCU plays a smothering, trapping style of defense and it gives teams with weak point guards fits.  The teams that have beaten VCU in the tournament the last 3 years all had very good point guards.  If you are looking for a long shot in the South this is the team I like.

It is often said but this year it is true, the tournament is up for grabs.  Would you be that surprised if Kentucky made a run with all that talent?  Or  if there were no 1 seeds in the final 4?  I don't think anything should surprise you come this years dance.  That makes for very exciting games and office pools.

BOL

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Statsational Super Bowl Selection

The championship games played out just as we thought.  With the weather perfect in Denver Peyton Manning was able to have his way with the New England Patriots.  The game was not as close as the score indicated.  In the second game it was a tough battle but, as we figured, Kaepernick lost the game turning it over 3 times late.

Before the Championship games the potential Seattle/Denver matchup had Seattle -1.  When the games ended some places opened the game at Seattle -1 and others a pk.  Within hours the money flooded in on Denver and the line went up to 2.5 and in some spots 3 in favor of Denver.  Generally that early money is smart money since the public won't be betting this game until Sunday.  The smart money wants to get the best line they can. They knew the public would be on Denver so getting Denver at a pk had great value.  If they like Denver they could keep their bets.  If they wanted to bet Seattle they could get a better line and if they wanted to just hedge they could play for a middle with Seattle.  This is how the professionals will handle a game like this as opposed to an average bettor.

So why does the public love Denver?  Going into the championship games both San Francisco and New England were getting the public backing.  The reason Denver was faded was because of Mannings lack of success in the post season and against Brady.  When Denver came out and looked unstoppable the public changed quickly.  Everyone knows how good Manning is and when you go against him and he picks you apart you want desperately to get back on his side.  Its psychological.  You just do not think he can be stopped when he is on a roll.  I was out watching the games and I heard the same things over and over.  "Manning is on a mission."  "Manning won't let this team lose".  Compare that to what I heard hours earlier "Manning is awful in the playoffs." "Manning can't beat Brady"  etc.  The public is very fickle.

Seattle, on the other hand, were not the public choice against San Francisco and they easily could have lost the game.  In the public's mind they had the game right, San Francisco was the better team.  So they take that feeling and couple it with the feeling of not being able to stop Manning and you have a very one sided bet game from the public.  That is not to say the public can not be correct.  The public was all over Auburn over Florida St while the smart money loved FSU and the public had that game pegged perfectly.

Both teams are very evenly matched up.  Both went 13-3 in the regular season.  Both were their conferences 1 seed.  Seattle was the best defense in the league while Denver was the best offense.  This is the 5th time we have a matchup of the best offense against the best defense.  The defense is 3-1 so far.  '78 Steelers, '84 49ers, 90 'Giants were all top defensive teams that defeated the top offense that year.  Only the 1989 49ers were able to win as the top offense in the league against the number 1 defense.  Many people have talked about this but few have mentioned the other side of the ball for the teams involved in these Super Bowls.  In my pre playoff analysis I showed how being efficient in the passing game was a key to Super Bowl success.  In 1978 Pittsburgh was 1 in offensive yards per pass attempt.  In 1984 San Francisco was 3 and in 1990 the NY Giants were 9.  The 1989 49ers team with the top offense ranked 3 in defensive yards per passing attempt.  So these teams were not just dominant on one side of the ball.  They were dominant on both.  Seattle this season is 2 in OYPPA and 1 in DYPPA.  Denver was 3 in OYPPA but just 15 in DYPPA.  Seattle is the more dominant team on both sides of the ball.

From a YPPA standpoint this game resembles the Super Bowl 1991.  Washington was 1 in OYPPA and 2 on DYPPA.  Buffalo was 3 in OYPPA and 13 in DYPPA.  In that game the offenses dominated.  Buffalo gave up 37 points in the game in large part to Kelly throwing 4 picks.  That Washington team threw the ball deep really well as does this Seattle team.  Mark Rypien was 249-421 for 3564 Yards with a 97.9 QB rating and 8.47 YPA.  Wilson, this season, 257-407 for 3357 yards with a 101.2 QB rating and 8.2 YPA.  The biggest difference is their ability to run.  Rypien had no ability and Wilson is one of the better scramblers we have seen.  

One team scored over 30 on Seattle this year.  The Colts put up 34 at home against the Seahawks in week 5.  A look at the boxscore however shows that the defense played fairly well.  7 points came off a blocked fg.  Luck threw for just 208 yards on 16 of 29.  The Colts ran it for 109 on 29 attempts.  The Seahawks were killed with penalties.  7 for 85 yards.  Typically a game like that you would see about 18-21 points for the Colts.  So it was a bit of an anomaly. 

The lowest points scored for Denver was that San Diego game.  San Diego was able to stop the run.  Denver ran for just 18 yards on 11 attempts.  Manning was 27-41 for 277.  This is the type of game Seattle will need to play.

Seattle has been very good on offense averaging almost 26 ppg.  They score 3.5 more points per game then their opponents give up.  The Denver defense has given up 24 ppg.  They give up .5 ppg more than their opponents score.  The Denver defense does get better when the offense plays more of a ball control style.  They give up a lot of points because their offense is scoring so much.  The Denver defense has played well in the playoffs.  The San Diego game was near impossible to throw the ball.  That was one of the windiest games I have ever seen.  The New England performance was more impressive although going in we did say New England was a bit overrated.

Russel Wilson is 7-1 ATS as an Underdog.  Peyton Manning is 2-7 ATS off a bye week in the post season.  For some reason the off week has not helped Manning much.  Perhaps the week off takes him out of his rhythm a bit.

If you like experience as a factor consider the more experienced Super Bowl team since 1990 has won just 8 times.

Seattle had an average O/U this season of 43.  The total for this game is 47.  Teams in the postseason playing in a game with a higher O/U than their season average and who have a + Interception Differential over their last 3 games win ATS at a 61% clip.

 

We spoke about defensive penalties going in to the NFC Championship game.  The league has made an effort to let these guys play.  The Super Bowl will be no different.  Last year there were no defensive holding penalties and 1 defensive pass interference calls.  This plays right into Seattle's hands.  They want to play this game physical with the Denver WR's.  In the colder temperatures, and if there is any wind, Seattle is going to play tight to the Denver receivers.  This will disrupt the timing that Manning needs to be successful.  This will force Manning to try and go deep and/or run the ball.  Both of which I do not expect them to do well.  Look for Manning to turn it over more than Wilson does and that becomes the deciding factor in this game.

So many of the trends in the model were offset meaning both sides fit.  We did however get slightly more on the Seattle side and as such they become a small percentage play.  Take the game now because if the weather does change for the worse the line will get closer to a pick.

Super Bowl

1. Seattle +2.................54%

BOL

Thank you all for being part of another winning NFL season.  106-89-6 going into this weekend.  Follow on twitter for the NBA/CBB/NHL selections everyday.

Pass It Efficiently and Stop The Pass Wins Championships

All of us who grew up watching football listened to commentators and analysts pound home the theory that you need to run the ball and stop the run to win championships.  I just assumed that was true since the "experts" all said it was.  But watching the NFL the last few seasons it didn't seem to be the case.

In my never ending quest to find an angle to help me handicap I looked at some statistics for Super Bowl winning teams.  Yards per Rush Attempt and Yards Per Pass Attempt.  I looked at these both offensively and defensively.  Below are the Super Bowl winners since the merger and their ranking in each category.

Year	Team	OYPR Rank	OYPP Rank	DYPR Rank	DYPP Rank	Passing Combined	Rushing Combined
1970	Baltimore	22	5	12	4	9	34
1971	Dallas	7	2	1	5	7	8
1972	Miami	2	1	12	4	5	14
1973	Miami	2	15	7	2	17	9
1974	Pittsburgh	2	22	3	2	24	5
1975	Pittsburgh	2	6	22	2	8	24
1976	Oakland	14	2	15	23	25	29
1977	Dallas	5	3	8	1	4	13
1978	Pittsburgh	21	1	2	5	6	23
1979	Pittsburgh	1	1	1	2	3	2
1980	Oakland	9	10	1	15	25	10
1981	San Francisco	26	9	21	4	13	47
1982	Washington	17	3	13	9	12	30
1983	Los Angeles	14	3	5	7	10	19
1984	San Francisco	2	3	21	8	11	23
1985	Chicago	5	6	7	2	8	12
1986	NY Giants	11	12	11	6	18	22
1987	Washington	5	1	11	16	17	16
1988	San Francisco	2	9	5	3	12	7
1989	San Francisco	11	1	9	3	4	20
1990	NY Giants	19	9	8	1	10	27
1991	Washington	17	1	15	2	3	32
1992	Dallas	10	8	3	3	11	13
1993	Dallas	3	4	18	1	5	21
1994	San Francisco	7	1	16	6	7	23
1995	Dallas	5	3	19	16	19	24
1996	Green Bay	12	7	4	1	8	16
1997	Denver	2	6	30	4	10	32
1998	Denver	2	5	8	11	16	10
1999	St Louis	2	1	6	7	8	8
2000	Baltimore	8	21	1	4	25	9
2001	New England	24	14	21	17	31	45
2002	Tampa Bay	27	19	4	1	20	31
2003	New England	30	13	6	1	14	36
2004	New England	17	9	11	15	24	28
2005	Pittsburgh	12	1	1	5	6	13
2006	Indianapolis	17	3	32	8	11	49
2007	NY Giants	4	28	8	19	47	12
2008	Pittsburgh	29	14	1	1	15	30
2009	New Orleans	6	3	26	15	18	32
2010	Green Bay	27	3	31	7	10	58
2011	NY Giants	32	3	23	20	23	55
2012	Baltimore	12	14	7	17	31	19

Just 10 of the 43 Super Bowl winners since the merger had a combined ranking in Offensive and Defensive YPR greater than the combined ranking for YPP.  Included in that number are the 1979 Steelers who were pretty much dominant in every category, the 1988 49ers who were top 10 in each, and the 1998 Broncos who were very good in all categories just missing a top 10 sweep.

• The average combined YPP ranking for Super Bowl winners is 14 while the average YPR rank is 23. 
• Only two teams have combined for more than a 25 in YPP rankings and won the Super Bowl (2007 NY Giants 47, 2012 Baltimore Ravens 31)

The 2007 Giants were probably the most difficult team to predict going into a playoff.  They performed nothing like they did in the regular season.  During the playoffs Eli became a different QB and the Giants pass rush was unstoppable.  They were an enigma and definitely not the norm.

We do see the numbers for all rankings a bit higher in the last 19 years since the salary cap was instituted.  Teams do not have the ability to be as dominant across the board like they were in previous seasons.  We may never see a 1979 Pittsburgh line again.

What I found most interesting was teams that I had assumed won with good running games and the ability to stop the run like the '85 Bears '86 Giants and '90 Giants were not necessarily true.  Yes the Bears were pretty dominant across the board but it was equal.  The Giants in 1990 were actually not very efficient in the running game but they stopped the pass better than anyone that season.

Here is a look at this years playoff teams

Year	Team	OYPR Rank	OYPP Rank	DYPR Rank	DYPP Rank	Combined Pass Rank	Combined Rush Rank
2013	Seattle	12	2	9	1	3	21
2013	Cincinnati	27	10	16	2	12	43
2013	New Orleans	26	6	28	11	17	54
2013	San Francisco	9	8	11	6	14	20
2013	Denver	18	3	10	15	18	28
2013	Philadelphia	1	1	6	19	20	7
2013	Carolina	16	14	17	9	23	33
2013	New England	11	18	24	13	31	35
2013	Green Bay	4	5	29	27	32	33
2013	San Diego	21	4	29	29	33	50
2013	Kansas City	5	27	26	18	45	31
2013	Indianapolis	13	19	25	22	41	38

Seattle is much the best in the passing categories combined.  Ranked 2 on offensively and 1 on defense.  Those are menacing numbers for teams coming in to Seattle.

Cincinnati ranks best in the passing categories in the AFC.

Philadelphia ranks first in both offensive categories.  Will their 19 rank in defensive YPP slow them down?

Kansas City and Indianapolis play each other this weekend but neither team looks to have a line that is favorable to a team winning it all.

8 Teams finished in the top 10 in Off YPP that are in the playoffs.  Just 4 finished in the top 10 of Off YPR.

Based on these numbers who do you like to win it all?

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Statsational 2013-14 NFL Playoff Analysis and Super Bowl Picks

Each year I analyze each team in the NFL Playoffs to look for some value on a potential Super Bowl winner.  As I have stated in the past, we do not crown the best team of the season champion we crown the team that wins the tournament at the end of the year the champion.  Since deciding who the best team is can always be subjective we like having it settled on the field.  But that does open it up to an inferior team getting hot at the right time or getting favorable matchups etc winning it all. 

Over the last 14 seasons just two of the 14 teams that had the best regular season record, or tied for the best record, went on to win the Super Bowl. The 2002 Buccaneers and the 2003 Patriots.  Looking for a long shot is usually beneficial. 

I like to look at 3 filters to determine a potential winner for the Super Bowl.  It is a very basic strategy but a good way to weed out the teams that are highly unlikely to win it all.

Here are my filters

1. Team must have a total yardage differential >36 (just 7 teams won the Super Bowl with less)

2. Teams must be + in turnover differential (just 6 teams won the Super Bowl with a - differential)

3. SRS from Pro Footbal Reference >5.9 (just 9 teams had a lower ranking including the 2006 Colts at 5.9)

-33 of the 47 Super Bowl winners qualified for all 3 filters.

-The average Super Bowl winner has a +64 yardage differential and +8.6 TO differ ential.  Average SRS is 9.

1976-1988 there were 6 teams of the 13 winners who missed on at least one qualifier and 2001-2012 there have been 6 of 12 winners to not qualify in at least one category.  We are in the midst of a cycle where weaker teams are winning the Super Bowl.  The yardage differential is where that is showing up.  It is taking less dominant teams from a yardage standpoint to win it all.  The turnovers have become increasingly important though.  Since 1988 only 1 team has won with a negative TO ratio (2007 Giants). This makes sense because teams that are close in yardage differential need to create turnovers to outscore their opponent. 

This year was a very good year for favorites.  Favorites went 136-114 against the spread in 2013.  In the past 20 seasons 1998 and 2005 would be comparable as far as favorites covering.  In those seasons Denver and Pittsburgh qualified for all 3 filte rs.


Here is a chart of all the Super Bowl winners

Year	Team	Yards Diff / Game	TO Diff / Game	Yards +TO's	SRS
1966	Green Bay	48	18	66	13.5
1967	Green Bay	70	3	73	9.4
1968	NY Jets	120	15	135	7.9
1969	Kansas City	103	8	111	11.9
1970	Baltimore	21	-2	19	0.4
1971	Dallas	112	16	128	9.9
1972	Miami	124	18	142	11
1973	Miami	59	1	60	13.4
1974	Pittsburgh	93	7	100	6.8
1975	Pittsburgh	88	5	93	14.2
1976	Oakland	58	-4	54	8.5
1977	Dallas	114	7	121	7.8
1978	Pittsburgh	52	7	59	8.2
1979	Pittsburgh	124	-10	114	11.9
1980	Oakland	0	5	5	4.2
1981	San Francisco	45	23	68	6.2
1982	Washington	47	8	55	7.4
1983	Los Angeles	59	-13	46	6.8
1984	San Francisco	74	16	90	12.7
1985	Chicago	106	23	129	15.9
1986	NY Giants	39	11	50	9
1987	Washington	36	-3	33	3.9
1988	San Francisco	83	12	95	4.8
1989	San Francisco	103	12	115	10.7
1990	NY Giants	37	20	57	7.7
1991	Washington	91	18	109	16.6
1992	Dallas	105	7	112	9.9
1993	Dallas	53	6	59	9.6
1994	San Francisco	76	11	87	11.6
1995	Dallas	49	2	51	9.7
1996	Green Bay	86	15	101	15.3
1997	Denver	75	10	85	10.7
1998	Denver	72	10	82	8.9
1999	St Louis	107	5	112	11.9
2000	Baltimore	65	23	88	8
2001	New England	(29)	7	(22)	4.3
2002	Tampa Bay	60	17	77	8.8
2003	New England	23	17	40	6.9
2004	New England	47	9	56	12.8
2005	Pittsburgh	38	7	45	7.8
2006	Indianapolis	47	7	54	5.9
2007	NY Giants	26	-9	17	3.3
2008	Pittsburgh	75	4	79	9.8
2009	New Orleans	46	11	57	10.8
2010	Green Bay	49	10	59	10.9
2011	NY Giants	9	7	16	1.6
2012	Baltimore	2	9	11	2.9

Here are this years playoff teams

Year	Team	Yards Diff / Game	TO Diff / Game	Yards +TO's	SRS
2013	Denver	101	0	101	11.4
2013	New Orleans	94	0	94	8.8
2013	Seattle	65	20	85	13
2013	Cincinnati	63	1	64	5.3
2013	Green Bay	28	-3	25	-3.1
2013	San Diego	27	-4	23	2.7
2013	Philadelphia	23	12	35	1.9
2013	Carolina	16	11	27	9.2
2013	New England	11	9	20	5.9
2013	San Francisco	7	12	19	10.1
2013	Indianapolis	(15)	13	(2)	4
2013	Kansas City	(31)	18	(13)	6.1

 Team (record) odds

1. Seattle Seahawks (13-3) 12-5

Seattle qualifies easily for all three filters.  They did last year as well and were one of our long shot picks.  This season the price is much shorter however.  Seattle finishes with the best record in the NFC and gets home field throughout.  That is a nice advantage for most teams but a huge advantage to Seattle.  Seattle was 7-1 at home this season.  The loss was Russel Wilsons first at home as a pro.  The Seahawks average +15.4 points at home this season.  Against playoff teams Seattle was 3-1.  +20 in turnovers is the number I really like.  Russel Wilson is one of the smarter Qb's in the league and he is only in his 2nd season.  Seattle was -27.5 in offensive passing yardage differential from opponents average.  That is a little misleading because of the style they play and the fact that they had so many big leads.  They do however average 7.7 yards per pass attempt which is 4th in the league.  So when they need to throw it they can.  As far as stopping the pass no team was better.  Teams threw it 49.9 yards less in the air against Seattle than their average.  That means Seattle was able to stop other teams from passing even when they were playing catch up.  That is impressive.  I took Seattle in the preseason to win the Super Bowl and I will not back off that.  I hate taking chalk but I will have to take Seattle at 12-5 as one of my teams to win.

2. Denver Broncos (13-3) 14-5

Denver finished the season very similar to last season.  They were 13-3 and the top seed in the AFC with a 107/-1/10.1  stat line for my above filters.  They are nearly identical.  They were 4-3 against playoff teams this season.  They will likely have to beat 3 top teams in a cold and windy game.  2 at home and the Super Bowl in New Jersey.  The cold is not what I worry about with Manning but the wind is a different story.  Manning does not throw tight spirals.  In the wind you have to throw it tight to be effective.  His strength is reading defenses and getting his team in a play that best suits them.  If he has to fit one in he starts to turn it over when the wind picks up.  That has been his downfall in the past and there is no reason to think that won't happen again.  There is always a chance he gets 3 perfect weather days and makes a run but that is hard to bet on.  Denver also ranks 24th in my defensive rankings with a 29 ranking in defensive passing. I feel like the team who wins this year will need to stop the run.  I am going to toss out Denver as there is no value and plenty of questions.

3. San Francisco 49ers (12-4) 7-1

If there is one team in the NFC that scares me about taking Seattle it is San Francisco.  On paper they show just a +7 yards per game differential.  That is enough to rule them out.  What worries me is I get the feeling SF held back Kaepernick this year.  They want to keep him healthy for the playoff run.  If I am correct we could see SF open it up more and use Kaepernick in more read option, pass/run option type plays.  If they do then their regular season stats may prove to be useless.  But that is really just my gut feeling and I have nothing to base it on.  Perhaps defenses are playing them differently and they can not run those same types of plays.  The one thing I know they can do is throw the ball deep and with Crabtree back they have a lot of weapons to do that.  Nobody in the league has a stronger arm then Kap.  When he is running it and throwing it deep they are dangerous.  They were 2-2 against playoff teams.  They can win on the road averaging +7.4 point differential on the road.  They will need to be good on the road as they will unlikely have any home games.  We had SF last year as one of our picks and we came close.  This year I am going to reluctantly stay away.

4. New England Patriots (12-4) 17-2

The Patriots are a perennial contender but they have not won a Super Bowl since 2004.  They fall short in 2 of 3 categories with just a +11 yardage differential and 5.9 SRS.  They do of course have Tom Brady and he can win games by himself.  But in the playoffs it is tough to not get a full team effort to win it all.  The team around him is not very strong.   The defense ranks 21st in passing.  I really think a team that can stop the pass is going to win the Super Bowl.  The Pats are 2-2 against playoff teams.  They could have easily been 0-4 or 4-0 in those games so I guess 2-2 was right.  There are better teams at better prices in this tournament.  I will pass on New England.

5. Carolina Panthers (12-4) 10-1

We start to get into some nice prices as we look at the lower 2/3 of the tournament.  Carolina started slow but really heated up down the stretch.  Cam Newtons 3rd season has shown some maturity.  Turnovers were the key as they are +11 turning it over just 19 times.  They went 3-2 against playoff teams.  Defensively they were solid, 2nd overall and 11th against the pass.  My concern is can they get in a shootout and win.  Points are going to be scored and they will have a game they need to outscore somebody.  They are the 26th passing team in my rankings.  I don't think that will be good enough.  I will pass on Carolina.

6. Green Bay Packers (8-7-1) 20-1

Unusual to see a team 8-7-1 be the 6th choice but this team was better than their record.  With Aaron Rodgers they went 6-2.  This team was in the top 5 of my rankings when he went down.  I do not believe we have seen a bigger affect on the point spread with a single player being injured in recent time.  Rodgers was worth upwards of 10 points and probably could have been more.  20-1 is probably a better price than you would have gotten if he played all season.  That does make this a decent value.  The problem is right out of the gate they play a team in the 49ers that they have had a lot of problems with.  If they do get by them they will likely have to beat Seattle in Seattle for the NFC Championship.   That seems like a very tough hill to climb.  The Pack went 0-3 against playoff teams.  The defense was 20th against the pass.  They do not qualify on any of the filters.  I will pass on Green Bay.

7.  Philadelphia Eagles (10-6) 20-1

The Eagles come in winners of 7 of 8 and are as hot as any team in the league.  With Foles taking over this offense looks very formidable.  They finish 4th overall in offense, 1st in rushing and 13th in passing.  Defensively they can not stop the pass.  They ranked dead last.  They are just +23 in yardage differential.  Against playoff teams they went just 1-3.  Outside of being a team that is playing well late in the year there is not much else I like about this team.  I will pass on the Eagles.

8. Cincinnati Bengals (11-5) 20-1

Cincinnati was pretty quiet this season going 11-5.  They did most of their damage at home going 8-0.  On the road they were just 3-5.  To get to the big game they will need to win at least one playoff road game and likely 2.  They almost qualify in all three categories missing out on the SRS.  Defensively this team can stop the pass finishing 3rd in the league.  On offense they are 8th best in passing.  I like that combination.  Against playoff teams they went 4-0 albeit 3 of those were at home.  The talent is there to make a run to the Super Bowl.  I think the AFC is a bit open with the top 2 seeds having big question marks.  They miss on the SRS but at 20-1 I will be in on the Bengals.

9. Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) 30-1

There is always a team that has a really good season but nobody gives much of a chance to win it all.  This year that team is Kansas City.  Those teams also never seem to do more than the public expects either.  Kansas City was 1-5 against playoff teams.  That tells you all you really need to know.  They beat up on the teams they were supposed to beat, taking advantage of a last place schedule.  When they faced the better teams they could not win.  -31 yardage differential can not get it done in the post season.  If they do it will be a new low for a Super Bowl team.  Nice year for the Chiefs but it will end soon.  Pass on KC.

10. Indianapolis Colts (11-5) 30-1

I feel like everyone loves Andrew Luck a whole lot more than I do.  He is a good player for sure.  He has a long way to go before he is in the top 5 QB in the league discussion though.  He did a real nice job of not turning the ball over helping the Colts get to a +13 in the TO differential.  Yardage wise they fall short at -15.  They are a bit scary though as they seem to play up or down to their opponent.  They were 4-2 against playoff teams beating SF, Seattle and Denver.  Maybe Luck takes a step in the direction of becoming one of those guys this post season.  I do not see anything that will make me bet on it though.  At 30-1 you get a nice price but I am going to pass.

11. New Orleans Saints (11-5) 30-1

The Saints are one of the longest shots on the board for one reason.  They are terrible on the road going just 3-5.  They likely won't see the Super Dome where they were 8-0 this season.  And to top it off they will need to win outdoors if they do make it to the Super Bowl.  That is a tall order for a team that thrives in the dome.    New Orleans just about qualifies on all 3 fronts so if you are looking for a live long shot they could be one.  They are 2nd in passing offense and 5th in passing defense.   2-3 against playoff teams.  A team with their stat line is normally an auto bet for me but this is an unusual team built for indoor play.  I am going to pass on them and hope I do not miss out on a 30-1 shot that fits what I like in every way but one.

12. San Diego Chargers (9-7) 50-1

Most people would automatically dismiss San Diego and give them no chance but we have seen in recent years long shot wild car teams make deep runs and win it all.  With that said I do not see where this team gives you any hope of winning a Super Bowl.  They miss out on all 3 qualifiers.  They rank 24 against the pass.  If you want to hang your hat on one thing they are battle tested.  7 games against playoff teams and they won 5 of them.  Granted one was against the KC practice squad in OT to get into the playoffs.  Nobody would be more surprised than me if they won it all.  I will save my money.

I already have a preseason bet on Seattle that I may add to here as they look to be the best team on paper going in.  I will be taking some Cincinnati as my lone long shot pick.  I usually have 2 or 3 long shots to choose from but this is an unusual season.  It has been very chalky and I think the playoffs stay the same way.

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For a traditional handicapper week 1 might be the most difficult.  No matter how much homework you do it is very hard to predict how teams are going to perform with new personnel and new coaches.  It takes a minimum of 4 weeks to really get a feel for each team.  Even then we have teams like the 2012 Arizona Cardinals who started 4-0 with a shocking win in New England only to finish 6-10.  But then you have teams like Seattle who were underdogs in their first 3 home games and won each outright. They then went on to the playoffs.

Handicappers and odds makers alike do not really know who the top teams are going into the season.  They have their guesses based on past performance.  This is where the system has been able to exploit the early season number.  The lines in week 1 are sometimes a far cry from what the Week 16 lines would be in the same matchups.  This is because the NFL has purposefully designed its product so that it is not as difficult to turn things around as it is in other sports. 

In summary things don't always appear as they may be in the early weeks.  Every trend ATS shows that.  Week 1 picks can sometimes be scary but it is the tough bet that is often the best.

Week 1

1. Detroit -4.5.................66%

2. Tennessee +7.............62%
3. Buffalo +10.................62%
4. Arizona +4.5...............59%

5. Cleveland -1................58%

6. Philadelphia +3.5.........58%

7. Dallas -3.5...................58%
8. Oakland +10................57%

9. Denver -7.5..................57%

10. San Diego +4............55%

11. NY Jets +3................54%

12. Green Bay +4.5.........54%

BOL

NFL Win Total Over/Unders

Yesterday I posted the power rankings from the end of the regular season last year.  From there I like to get started with my analysis on who I expect to be better than the consensus and who I expect to be worse.  The rankings noted below are my own and may differ from the NFL rankings.  Each day I will analyze 5 teams.

Arizona Cardinals Total 5.5 2012 Record 5-11
The Cards had the toughest schedule in football last season.  Having to play in, what is now, one of the toughest divisions in football took its toll.  With just 5 wins Arizona was better than just the Lions and Eagles in the NFC.  Arizona had no quarterback to get the ball to Larry Fitzgerald last year.  They ranked 28th in passing offense and 30th in overall offense.  This season they should get an uptick in passing with veteran Carson Palmer now throwing it.  The defense was ok, 14th overall.  Looking at the schedule there won't be too many pushover games despite playing a last place schedule.  Detroit and Philadelphia figure to improve, the NFC South is solid.  Their best shot at a win comes against Jacksonville in week 11.  They are going to have to get 5 more wins some place in order to get the over here.  Leaning under.

Atlanta Falcons Total 10 2012 Record 13-3

The Falcons boasted the best record in the NFC last season.  Many thought the record was better than it should have been.  The Falcons squeaked by in many games last year against much weaker opponents.  The won games against Carolina, Oakland, Arizona and Tampa that they not only could have lost but probably should have lost.  Add in a week 2 win over Denver who had Peyton Manning still trying to figure out the offense and his teammates.  Manning had 4 early turnovers and still almost won the game late.  Last year Atlanta played the 13th toughest schedule.  This year they will get a first place schedule which means playing at San Francisco and Green Bay and home for Seattle and Washington.  They play the AFC East which means New England but they do catch a break with the Jets.  I expect the division to be much more competitive with the Saints focused on football and Carolina and Tampa improving with great young talent.  With that said 10 looks to be a number we can not get much value with.  Better options elsewhere.

Baltimore Ravens Total 8.5 2012 Record 10-6

Make no mistake this is Joe Flacco and Ray Rices team.  The Ravens are offense first now ranking 10th last season.  The Super Bowl champs come into this season looking a bit different then they did when they were hoisting the Lombardi Trophy back in February.  Losses like Anquan Boldin, Ray Lewis and Ed Reed will impact this team for sure but Ozzie Newsome might be the best GM in the game today.  Coupled with a very good head coach I do not expect the Ravens to live off of last seasons successes.  The Ravens ranked 11th overall at the end of the regular season.  The team got hot once they fired Cam Cameron.  I gave some statistics to that case in my Super Bowl preview selection last year.  A look at the Raven schedule shows that the road won't be easy but they need to be just 1 game worse than last season.  They are heavy favorites against the Jets and Cleveland at home.  They need to find 7 more wins.  If they can go 5-3 at home they will need to go 4-4 on the road.  The toughest road game will be week 1 in a rematch from last seasons Divisional game with the Broncos.  The remaining 7 games are all games they can win.  They will need 4 of those if they get just 5 at home.  I like Baltimore to find a way and go over the 8.5.

 Buffalo Bills Total 6.5 2012 Record 6-10

The Bills were a sexy over pick last season and disappointed many.  This year the number to beat is one more win then last season.  Buffalo played a weak schedule in 2012 ranking 29th.  The defense was awful and finished 30th overall.  Can EJ Manuel be the Russell Wilson of 2013.  That is the big question.  But the even bigger question is can this defense stop their opponents enough for it to matter.  The Seahawks were able to help Wilson along by playing great defense.  Buffalo can not duplicate that.  A look at their schedule shows they do have some games they should win.  Home games against the Jets, Kansas City and Miami are all very winnable.  If they sneak in another win at home that means a 3-5 road schedule will get the over.  They play at Jacksonville, The Jets and Cleveland.  Those would be the games they have the best shot in.  7 wins is certainly possible and I would lean that way but not enough to make a strong play on them.

 Carolina Panthers Total 7 2012 Record 7-9

 Year 3 of the Cam Newton era begins for the Carolina Panthers.  The 2011 rookie sensation fizzled late in 2011 and early in 2012 before coming on strong again in the second half.  The Panthers were ranked 14th overall last season, just ahead of Minnesota and Dallas.  This team played solid defense ranking 7th overall.  I love teams who are solid against the pass and they were.  6th overall with teams like Denver and San Francisco ahead of them.  The schedule looks pretty difficult.  As stated earlier the NFC South has no pushover games.  They will be playing the AFC East which will give them a couple of easy games.  They look to win the Ram, Jet and Bucs game at home and on the road they get Arizona and Buffalo.  I think this is a team that will make a push for a playoff spot.  You get a low number here because of the schedule and division.  Can they be 1 game better than last year?  I think so.  I like Over 7 with Carolina.
Chicago Bears Total 8.5 2012 Record 10-6

No team was higher ranked and did not make the playoffs then the Chicago Bears.  They finished 6th overall led by the number 4 defense.  The Bears were close to making the playoffs had Green Bay beat Minnesota in the final week of the season.  A game that went down to the wire.  Urlacher is now gone and filling that void of a leader will be tougher to do then filling in his on field abilities as he was in decline the last few years.  Lovie Smith and his defensive minded coaching departs and in comes Marc Trestman.  Trestman has been known for taking QB's to the next level.  Under his tutelage Bernie Kosar, Scott Mitchell, Steve Young, Jake Plummer and Rich Gannon all had some of their best seasons ever.  There is no reason his West Coast system could not benefit Jay Cutler.  The talent has always been there now it is time to keep him upright and this system should do that.  Last season the Bears were 20th in offense and 29th in passing.  There will be a dramatic increase in both.  The defense should remain solid.  The schedule will not be easy.  The division is full of potential playoff teams.  Out of the division the only easy game is Cleveland and maybe St. Louis but they are on the road.  If you like the Over you have to think they are just better than the rest of the division and they just might be.  I am going Over the 8.5.

Cincinnati Bengals Total 8.5 2012 Record 10-6

The Bengals finished the regular season ranked 10th and made the playoffs.  They were one slightly over thrown ball away from beating Houston in Houston and advancing but it was not meant to be.   The Bengals strength was its defense finishing 9th overall.  The defensive line was good and should be even better this season.   Atkins and Johsnon are a formidable pass rush combination and getting better.  AJ Green is a superstar but Andy Dalton was very inconsistent last season.  They look to improve offensively as Mohamed Sanu will become a bigger factor for this team.  But for all of their talent to show its riches Andy Dalton will have to be better than last season.  If Dalton brings the QB rating up into the mid 90's this team could be very tough to beat.  The schedule is not one of the toughest we have seen.  There are a number of winnable games.  They need to win 6 home games to make the over look really good and 5 keeps you in the running.  The toughest games will be Baltimore, New England, Green Bay, Baltimore.  If they can split those I think the over hits.  I will take Over 8.5 with the Bengals.

Cleveland Browns Total 6 2012 Record 5-11

The Browns were disappointing yet again last season.  They may have found the RB of the future in Trent Richardson but the QB of the future is still up in the air.  You do not win in this league without a QB and the Browns need one to emerge.  Brandon Weeden will need to become that guy this year.  Norv Turner is now the offensive coordinator and he has had great success with QB's in the past.  Especially as a coordinator.  Weeden showed flashes throwing for 300 yards 3 times last year.  The TD to INT needs to improve from 14 and 17 however.  The schedule is not easy.  The Browns have not been very good on the road and it is tough to see them winning more than 1 or 2 games on the road this season.  It will take more than that to get this number over 6.  Lean under 6.

Denver Broncos Total 11.5 2012 Record 13-3

As long as we are just looking at the regular season then the Broncos have one of the best QB's of all time.  Manning took a little time to settle in last year but when he did the Broncos became a force to contend with.  Gamblers cashed in big on Denver as well as it was easy money backing the Broncos after the first few weeks winning 9 of 11 down the stretch ATS.  Now that Manning is healthy and familiar there is no reason to expect the Broncos to come out of the box like they did last season.  Wes Welker should be a great addition for the Broncos.  Manning loves to have a slot WR he can rely on and Welker is as good as it gets.  One big issue they do have is Von Miller is suspended for the first 6 games due to substance abuse violations.  The Broncos schedule opens tough with Baltimore and the Giants but after that there are a slew of winnable games.  Since 2003 Manning has failed to win 12 games just once.  With a defense that ranked 3rd last season Manning should be able to get that 12 number again easily.  Broncos over the 11.5.

Dallas Cowboys Total 8.5 2012 Record 8-8


When are the expectations not high in Dallas?  The Cowboys had destiny in their own hands last season and let it slip away in the last week.  Tony Romo, once again, threw the game away, with a pick 6 against the Redskins and sealed the fate of the Cowboys for 2012.  Dallas finished 16th in the power rankings and were only higher ranked than one playoff team, the Colts.  There is a ton of talent on this team.  Romo, despite his clutch mishaps, has a ton of talent.  Dez Bryant is one of the top 5 WR in the game today.  Witten at TE continues to be a great security blacket for Romo.  RB Demarcus Murray was a beast on short yardage situations last season.  If he stays healthy he will be a TD machine in the red zone.  Monte Kiffin has come in to replace Rob Ryan as defensive coordiantor.  The defense will move from a 3-4 to a 4-3.  It will be interesting to see if Ware and Spencer will be as effective as they were in the 3-4 system.  Kiffin should help the 19th defense in the league and a healthy Murray will improve on the 31st rushing attack.  The schedule gives them a chance to start of decently with KC, ST. Louis and San Diego but if they struggle at all it wont be easier the rest of the way.  Dallas will be in the hunt most of the year as 10 wins will likely win the division but I am not sure they will be the team to get the 10.  No opinion here on the 8.5.

Detroit Lions Total 7.5 2012 Record 4-12

Detroit was a team whose record was a lot worse than their performance.  Detroit finished 17th overall which should have been closer to or 8 win season.  Detroit has the premiere WR in the game in Calvin Johnson.  He can put up big numbers anywhere.  Stafford, when healthy, is up in the top 10 QB's in the league.  Last season he had 8 300 yard games but the Lions do throw it a ton.  They ranked 5th overall in offense but just 23rd in rushing offense.  The offense was carried by the number 1 ranked passing attack.  When you pass like they do it puts pressure on the defense and it showed.  The defense was 26th Overall.  This year they bring in two defensive players in the first two rounds of the draft in DE Ansah and CB Slay.  Both are expected to help this defense out.  Reggie Bush comes in as well to help out on the offensive side of the ball.  He could be very interesting as it gives another dimension to this offense.  But at the end of the day the Lions will need to stop people to win.  The schedule is not favorable.  When I look at it I am not sure where the 8 wins come from to get the over.  I think the public likes this team to bounce back and possibly make the playoffs.  I think this team improves but not enough.  6 or 7 wins at most this season.  Under 7.5

Green Bay Packers Total 10 2012 Record 11-5

When you have one of the best QB's in the league you will always be a contender.  Aaron Rodgers is relied upon to win games and he is capable of doing just that.  They lose Jennings so Cobb will have to step up and be the number one WR they feel he can be.  Rookie RB Eddie Lacy should get the bulk of the carries.  They finished 5th overall in the power rankings.  The area needed to improve the most was defense ranked 10.  The addition of Dante Jones at DE may help.  The Packers get the division winners schedule.  Tough road games at San Francisco, Cincinnati, Baltimore, NY Giants, Dallas.  At home they get Washington, Atlanta.  From the looks of it they could be very good at home winning 6 or 7.  They will struggle to be .500 on the road however.  Which puts us right around that 10 win number.  I am leaning under but not enough for a play.

Houston Texans Total 10 2012 Record 12-4

This team was everyone's darling the last couple of seasons but my sense this year is people are down on them.  They appeared to be a very weak 12-4 team last year and it showed in the playoffs.  They ranked behind Chicago at 7th overall last year.  The defense was 8th while the offense 11th.  The offense is usually all about Arian Foster.  Houston was a middle of the pack passing team and relied on Foster to carry the load.  This season Foster comes in with some back issues which can't make Texans fans feel very good.  Ben Tate has proven to be a formidable backup however averaging 4.3 YPR.  First round draft pick DeAndre Hopkins looks to compliment Andre Johnson in the passing game.  The defense looks to get stronger with the addition of the aging Ed Reed.  Hopkins may be the best second option the Texans have ever had.  The division is still pretty weak.  The Texans should be up at the top all season long.  The Texans schedule has them at Baltimore and San Francisco.  They get Seattle, New England and Denver at home.  Those are the toughest non divisional games they face.  They should win 4 divisional games easily.  They need to win 3 of those 5 tough games and then get 4 more.  It wont be easy.  I think 10 is right where they will be.

Indianapolis Colts Total 8.5 2012 Record 11-5

No team was luckier to make the playoff than the Colts last season.  Finishing the regular season ranked 23rd puts you in Miami and Cleveland territory.  But so many times the ball bounced the Colts way and they were able to steal some wins late in games.  Bruce Arians did a great job with this young team as interim coach and now leaves to take over in Arizona.  That loss may be significant.  The Colts ranked just 27th in total defense last year while the offense was just 19th.  With all the excitement over Andrew Luck many fail to realize he threw for a lesser completion percentage than Mark Sanchez last year, 54.1%.  The 18 INT's also need to come down.  The schedule has games at San Francisco and Cincinnati.  They get Seattle, Denver at home.  I want to fade this team but they have a lot of winnable games on the schedule.  Like the Texans they should win 4 divisional games.  They need a way to win 1 of those 4 toughest games and then win 4 of the following Oakland, Miami, @San Diego, St. Louis, @Arizona, @Kansas City.  You can make a strong case for the over.  I would lean that way but not going to make a play on it.

Jacksonville Jaguars Total 5 2012 Record 2-14

The Jaguars were the worst team in the league last season.  That is becoming a habit in Jacksonville.  Gus Bradley comes in as the new head coach to try and turn the ship around for the new ownership.  It appears Blaine Gabbert is going to win the job from Chad Henne who actually showed some signs of promise last season.  Gabbert has yet to produce consistently in the NFL.  The schedule for last place teams tends to be easier but the Jags will be an underdog in almost every game they play.  They will win 1 maybe 2 division games.  Their best shot at winning at home is Kansas City, Buffalo, San Diego, Arizona.  I do not like their chances.  Take the under 5.

 Kansas City Chiefs Total 7 2012 Record 2-14

No team gets a bigger improvement over 2012 total in Vegas then does the Chiefs.  The number is 5 games over their total from a year ago.  New Head Coach Andy Reid probably has something to do with that.  Another key addition is at QB with Alex Smith taking over the reins.   Smith emerged as a solid QB under the tutelage of Jim Harbaugh the last 2 seasons but fell out of favor after San Francisco got a taste of how electric Colin Kaepernick can be.  The running game is sold with Jamaal Charles leading the way.  Expect Charles to have a big year under Andy Reid who likes to throw the ball to his backs.  The Chiefs were a tough team to watch last season.  They were in so many games yet had so many turnovers cost them.  They had 37 turnovers in all.  They lost 5 games by less than 10 points.  The Chiefs were dismal in my rankings last season finishing 31st overall.  They should be much improved from that but getting to 8 wins may be difficult.  The schedule is not the toughest.  They get an easy opponent out of the box in Jacksonville but it is on the road.  They only games they are in against much better talent is Houston at home and the two Denver games.  With the new coach and QB this team holds the ball better than it did last season and finds a way to win more than 7.  Over the 7.

Miami Dolphins Total 7.5 2012 Record 7-9

The Dolphins got off to a nice start, 4-3, in 2012 but then went 3-6 to close it out.  Tough losses to the Jets, Arizona and Indianapolis really kept this team from a possible playoff birth.  But they were not really deserving.  Finishing 22 overall, just ahead of the Colts, in the rankings.  Miami was doing it mostly on defense ranking 11th overall the offense however ranked 29.  Ryan Tannehill looked good at times and will now have Mike Wallace to throw to.  This should boost the 26th ranked passing offense a bit.  Reggie Bush had a nice season with almost 1300 all purpose yards.  Bush is now running in Detroit so Miami will look to unproven backs to pick up the slack.  The schedule has the Dolphins on the road 3 of the first 4.  They must beat Cleveland or they could be facing 0-5 with Indy, Atlanta, New Orleans and Baltimore as the first 5 games.  That start looks too daunting.  I like the under 7.5 on Miami.

Minnesota Vikings Total 7.5 2012 Record 10-6

Interesting total as the oddsmakers anticpate a big drop off for the Vikings who made the playoffs last season.  Of course Minnesota has the premier RB in the game in Adrian Peterson.  AP figures to have another monster season.  The question mark will be in the passing game.  Ponder was efficient last year at 62.1% but it was mostly short passing as he threw for just 2935 yards.  A good 20/12 TD/INT ratio though showed Ponder will take care of the football.  Minnesota was middle of the pack last year ranking 15th.  That would be an 8-8 record, right where the experts have them this season.  The question is do they outplay last season or are they about the same.  Greg Jennings comes in from GB to help the 31st ranked passing offense.  Defensively Minnesota ranked 16th.  Minnesota loses a home game this year because they are playing in London as the home team against Pittsburgh.  The schedule is brutal.  The weakest team they face looks to be Philadelphia, whom they get at home.  7.5 will be close to where they are.  I would lean to the under slightly as I think the rest of the division is better.

 New England Patriots Total 11 2012 Record 12-4

The class of the AFC East by far the Patriots need to duplicate last season to cover the 11 win total.  Tom Brady loses his favorite target We Welker but Danny Amendola takes Welkers place and is probably a better talent.  The question is always health with Amendola.  If healthy he could be a great target for Brady to go to.  Another lost target is Aaron Hernandez who is sitting in jail awaiting trial for murder.  The other great TE Rob Gronkowski is battling health issues as he has had numerous surgeries in his short career.  If healthy he is a force.  The Patriot defense has been overlooked in recent years as the unit has given up big chunks of yardage.  They should improve from the 21 ranking a year ago.  The other night the defense was able to hold Detroit to 16 points in the first half despite playing with their backs on the end zone the whole half as the offense had 4 turnovers.  The schedule is manageable  The division looks to be weak so figure on 5 wins there.  7 more gets the over.  It won't be easy but consider Brady has won at least 11 games in 8 of 11 season.  The Patriots over the 11.

New Orleans Saints Total 9 2012 Record 7-9

The whole bounty situation is a thing of the past and now the Saints are back to normal.  Sean Payton will be back calling plays, just the way Drew Brees likes it.  This team got off to an 0-4 start and just could not get enough momentum together to make a playoff run last year.  The offense was great as usual finsihing 2nd but the defense stopped nobody finishing dead last.  The defense is moving to a 3-4 scheme to try and improve.  It can't get much worse.  The schedule is tough but not brutal.  Two tough divisional games to open and then two winnable games with Arizona and Miami at home.  After that it gets a bit tougher but they still get Buffalo and the Jets.  Winning 10 to get this over will be a lot to ask for.  I do not like this defense and that could be what keeps this team from making the playoffs again.  I would lean under the 9 but it should be close.

New York Giants Total 9 2012 Record 9-7

The Giants missed the playoffs last year for the 2nd time in the last 3 seasons.  But the year they did make it they won it all.  Eli Manning has shown a knack for playing big in the big game, especially in the 2 minute drill.  But the regular seasons for the Giants have never been great.  Even in their 2 Super Bowl seasons they were lucky just to get into the playoffs.  This year the oddsmakers have the Giants total right where it was a season ago.  They are favored in the NFC East but the team that wins that division is generally right around 10 wins.  So getting to 10 is never easy.  The Giants have averaged 9.625 wins in the Manning era and finished under 9 just twice winning 8 in '06 and '09.  Last season the Giants finished 9th overall in the rankings ahead of Washington who won the division.  The Giants were certainly good enough offensively but the defense lagged behind ranked just 17th.  When the Giants win it is because they are getting a pass rush.  In 2012 they missed Pierre-Paul for 12 weeks.  If he is healthy this year it could give a boost to that mediocre defense.  The schedule outside of the division is light having to play the weak AFC West.  Lean over 9.

New York Jets Total 6.5 2012 Record 6-10

The Jets are as close to first place today as they will be the rest of the season.  The comedy continues as fans of every team in the AFC East enjoy watching Rex Ryan do his thing each week.  This time Rex decided to play Mark Sanchez late in the 4th quarter against the Giants with the 2nd and 3rd string unit.  Sanchez was being hit hard on every snap until he finally injured his shoulder.  Seeing as Geno Smith looked awful and not ready to start an NFL game it is unclear what Rex was thinking.  But generally that is how it goes in Jet camp.  Only Rex knows what he is thinking.  The Jets defense should be improved however.  Despite losing Revis there is some talent on the defensive side of the ball.  The problem is they will not be able to score without a QB.  The offense was 28th last season and count on that being about their number this year.  The schedule has very few cupcakes on it.  The Jets will be a dog in all but 3 games.  I have a hard time finding 7 wins.  Take the Jets under the 6.5.

Oakland Raiders Total 5.5 2012 Record 4-12

In order for the Raiders to beat the number they will have to get production from their QB position.  The question is who will that QB be.  Terrel Pryor has looked good in the preseason while Matt Flynn has not.  It looked like it was Flynn's job to lose going into camp and he very well may have done that.  Last season Carson Palmer played well for the Raiders.  They ranked 9th in passing.  The problem on offense is keeping McFadden healthy.  Run DMC has not played more than 13 games in any season.  No reason to think this season will be different.  The defense was one of the worst in the league ranked 29.  I do not see the improvement on that side of the ball to make a case for this team improving.  The schedule shows they may be favored 3 times this year.  You need to win those and 3 more to get the over.  It will not be this season for the Raiders.  Under the 5.5.

Philadelphia Eagles Total 7 2012 Record 4-12

I am not sure if there is a collective offensive unit that is more careless with the ball then the Eagles.  It seems all of their star players like to carry the ball low and as a result they were -24 in turnovers last season.  That really was the major reason they had just 4 wins.  Vick looks to be the starting QB once again for new Head Coach Chip Kelly.  It will be interesting to see how Kelly runs his offense and if it is similar to the up tempo he ran in Oregon.  That tempo is great for the offense but it does weaken the defense.  We saw an offense in San Francisco change its approach at the expense of the defense last season.  (see my Super Bowl analysis from last season).  That defense was strong this one is not.  Eagle games could be very high scoring this season.  The schedule this year is always going to be tough in division.  Out of the division they do get a break with the AFC West.  In the NFC they get a tough NFC Central.  This team will be improved this season.  7 looks to be a good number.  Tough call on either side.

Pittsburgh Steelers Total 9 2012 Record 8-8

Well are the Steelers better than they were a year ago?  That is the question to answer when looking at this total.  Big Ben is back at the helm and when healthy we know he can win games for the Steelers.  The question is can he be healthy.  The Steelers did what they do in the offseason which is replace aging players and contracts with younger cheaper additions.  Pittsburgh was 5th in defense last season but the offense was a dismal 22.  They should improve there if Ben plays 16 games but will the defense be as good.    The schedule has them playing the NFC North which won't be easy but the AFC East, whom they also play, may give them a couple of wins.  They also benefit from a 3rd place finish getting Tennessee and Oakland on the schedule.  Getting to 10 wins will not be easy and if they do it may be good enough to win this division.  I can see this team right at the 9 so I will pass on the Steelers.

San Diego Chargers Total 7.5 2012 Record 7-9

San Diego was one of the more disappointing teams in 2012 going 7-9 and missing the playoffs.  I think the season was summed up in one play, 4th and 29 against Baltimore and they let Ray Rice run around for the first down which led to the tying score and eventual loss.  The other shining moment was the 2nd half collapse on Monday night against the Broncos up 24-0 and lose 35-24.  Those were the games that led to the demise of Norv Turner, perhaps a few years too late.  In comes new head coach Mike McCoy from Denver.  This team finished 21 in the rankings last year but the defense was not bad at 12.  Turner was an offensive coach and so is McCoy.  We will see if that change means much.  The bottom line is can Rivers play better than he did last season.  Rivers at times looks like he is giving games away on purpose.  Some of his decision making is really questionable.  Gates can no longer be counted on as Rivers security blanket in the passing game.  There is some talent at WR however with Vincent Brown probably his best option.  The schedule has SD playing 4 playoff teams at home, a place where they went 3-5 last season.  In addition to those 4 teams they get Dallas and The Giants at home.  Their road schedule is much easier.  They could repeat 2012 with a better road record than home.  It looks like getting to 8 is about as good as this team will do.  I will lean under but not enough to play it.

San Francisco 49ers Total 11.5 2012 Record 11-4-1

Maybe the most hyped team of the season, which always makes me approach with caution.  The Niners are defending NFC champions.  Expectations are for this team to be better than they were a year ago.  That would mean 12 wins and a Super Bowl Championship.  The last time the Super Bowl loser won it all the next season was 1972 when the Dolphins went 17-0.  If you go back to my Super Bowl analysis you will see that there was a definite change to the 49ers when Kaepernick took over from Smith but it wasn't all positive.  The 49'ers defense was mediocre without the more ball control style offense.  If you are expecting a dominant defense, don't.  I suspect a move back in defense from their number 1 ranking while the offense should improve from 9.  The two should cancel each other out.  The question here is whether they can be better.  The schedule looks favorable.  We know about the division, with Seattle being very good, St Louis improving and a bad Arizona team.  They get The AFC South, which is not strong and the NFC South which is competitive but the best team in the NFC is probably not coming out of there.  So there is an opportunity to get to 12 wins here.  To do it they will need to be almost perfect at home which means defeating Green Bay, Atlanta, Indy, Houston and Seattle.  That is a tall order but doable.  I can not take the over here but I can't take them under either although that is the lean.

Saint Louis Rams Total 7.5 2012 Record 7-8-1

St. Louis is improving with one of the best coaches in the game Jeff Fisher.  They will need to be a little better this season to get the over.  The team brought in Jake Long and Jared Cook and rookies Ogletree and Austin are expected to have major impacts.  Bradford is the question mark.  He loses his favorite target in Danny Amendola, although he was never healthy enough to play a full season.  Bradford was a very respectable 22/13 TD to INT and I expect him to be back in that ballpark again.  The defense finished 13th last season with the offense 21st.  I expect the offense to be better this year with the defense getting a slight uptick as well.  That is the good news, the bad is they have to play Seattle and San Francisco 4 times although they managed to go 2-1-1 against them last year.  The rest of the schedule has some winnable games but not many.  This team will be right at this number once again unless Bradford has a monster season.  No opinion on the 7.5.

Seattle Seahawks Total 10.5 2012 Record 11-5

One of the biggest surprises of last season was Russell Wilson and the Seahawks.  We knew the defense was solid and Lynch was a beast but nobody saw Wilson coming.  And when he did the Seahwaks got on a roll.   This season there will be no surprises but Wilson is a winner.  This team finished 3rd in my rankings ahead of San Francisco last season.  The defense was 2 and the offense 7.  I think this defense finishes number 1 this year with the offense staying right where they are.  Percy Harvin does come in to add a weapon to Wilsons arsenal.  The schedule at home doesn't really matter since the Seahawks are impossible to beat at home.  7-8 wins should be easy.  On the road however it gets tougher.  At Houston, Indianapolis, Atlanta and the Giants.  I think they handle business on the road as well though and cover the 10.5.  Seattle over.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Total 7.5 2012 Record 7-9

As the oddsmakers like to do they will put a number up on Tampa right where they were a year ago.  Tampa played to their ranking finishing 19th overall.  Doug Martin broke out last season as one of the top RB's in the game.  But QB Freeman has seen his completion percentage decline from 66.5% in 2010 to 62.6% in '11 to 54.8% last season.  He must be better than that for him to keep his job and have this team improve.  Tampa was 16th in overall offense with a 22 defensive ranking.  They ranked high against the run, 1st overall, but that may be deceptive since teams were passing on them so easily, ranked 31.  There was not much reason to try and run it.  Tampa's schedule on the road is brutal with just the Jets in week 1 to look forward to.  That road schedule scares me.  I will take under the 7.5 with Tampa.


Tennessee Titans Total 6.5 2012 Record 6-10


The Titans go as Chris Johnson goes.  In 2011 he fell off the face of the earth but he rebounded a bit in 2012.  Which CJ will show up in 2013?  The offensive line is improved with Andy Levitre and Chance Warmack.  That should help Johnson find some holes to run in.  Jake Locker needs to improve to get this team into contention.  Last seasons 11/11 TD/INT ratio wont hack it.  Locker can throw it, now he needs to find a way to do so under control.  The offense ranked 23 last season.  It may have been worse if not for a shootout with Detroit.  The defense was worse ranked 31 overall.  Just New Orleans was worse and they do not have the New Orleans fire power on offense.  The front 7 is young but does have potential.  The secondary is weak however.  The schedule won't be easy.  Opener at Pittsburgh followed up by a road game in Houston.  Could easily be an 0-2 start.  If they do happen to split then they could find themselves on pace for an over because the next 3 opponents are much weaker.  It can be done and I would lean slightly over 6.5 but not enough to warrant a play.


Washington Redskins Total 8 2012 Record 10-6


Big jump for the Redskins thanks to RG3 and Alfred Morris.  Not much is said about Morris with RG3 the star everyone jumps to but Morris had a big season averaging 4.8 YPC.  Overall the team ranked 15, right in the middle of the pack.  So they did over achieve a bit.  Injuries are a concern with RG3 as he comes off knee surgery.  The defense was not great ranked 23rd overall.  They could be thrown on ranking 29th against the pass.  They have tried to make some improvements there but not enough to make this a top defense.  The Redskins won a lot of close games.  The ball seemed to bounce their way as well as they were +17 in giveaways.  They will need a similar stroke of luck to win the division again.  The schedule will be much more difficult than the last place schedule they faced last season.  I will pass on this team but I have a feeling the under might be the play here.

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